This 3-Dimensional Macro-economic model can forecast current US economic and global crisis 2008 – Can show how inputs will affect markets including credit default swaps and bailouts – US economic crisis

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The Macroeconomic Graphical Sensor System (MGS-System)

Last updated: 27 June 2008

Category:

Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

Dr Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

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Synopsis

1. ABSTRACT

This research paper is interested to propose an alternative Multi-Dimensional (MD) graphical computational system to observe or simulate different macroeconomic scenarios simultaneously in real-time or live. It is called “The Macroeconomic Graphical Sensor System (MGS-System)”. Therefore, the construction of this Multi-Dimensional graphical computational system is based on the application of Econographicology (Ruiz, 2007) and Database analysis.

2. INTRODUCTION

The basic idea to build the MGS-System is to show a set of Multi-Dimensional graphs, at the same time, these Multi-Dimensional graphs are moving constantly in real-time or live. If some of these Multi-Dimensional graphs show an erratic behavior, then the MGS-System start to alert immediately about possible failure(s) in some or all macroeconomic scenarios in the same graphical space. The failure(s) location depends on the Multi-Dimensional graph position into its physical space coordinate system respectively. If the MGS-System find some or many failure(s) in the Multi-Dimensional graph, then the MGS-System start to take action(s) to search possible solutions (or economic policies) to solve some or many failure(s) simultaneously. These solutions (or economic policies) are originated from a large number of database. To find the possible solutions (or economic policies) to solve some or many failure(s), it is depend on the serial of parameters that we are established in each axis on the Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system respectively.Hence, the selection of possible solution(s) (or economic policies) depend on the Multi-dimensional graph position. The final solution(s) is selected according to less risk or less vulnerable economic impact among a large number of possible solutions. Moreover, this research paper has three specific objectives follow by:

The first specific objective in this research paper is the application of a basic form of Database analysis based on the application of a default random process. The default random process will choose the best solution(s) (or economic policy) into a large Database from successful economic models, theoretical frameworks and econometric models and simulations applied on economics. It is based on the parameters are established into each axis in the Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system.

The second specific objective is the application of Econographicology, it is offer a new types of graphs under the application of physical spaces are presented: Pyramid Physical Space, Diamond Physical Space, Multi-Dimensional Physical Space, Infinity Physical Space, and Multi-Pictorial Physical Space (Ruiz, 2008). These graphs and Physical Spaces are constructed based on the traditional 3-Dimensional space concept, but they represent 4-D, 5-D, 8-D, 9-D and Infinity-Dimension. The multiple-dimensional representations are to facilitate easy understanding of economic phenomena from a general view.

Finally, this research will to show a flow chat to explain the construction and implementation of the Macroeconomic Graphical Sensor System (MGS-System). The idea to build the MGS-System is to offer an alternative technical tool to policy makers, academics, international institutions to obtain a serial of possible solutions to solve economic problems.

3. THE MGS-SYSTEM THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The MGS-System follow by five basic phases: The first phase is the input and storage of large amount of information (quantitative or qualitative) constantly; the second phase is the visualization of Multi-Dimensional graphs in real-time or live; the third phase is to alert of possible failure(s) in different economic scenarios in the same graphical space; the fourth phase is to search a possible set of solution(s) (or economic policies) according to the graph position into its Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system respectively and the fifth phase is the final report with a short list of recommendation(s) or suggestion(s) to solve the irregular or erratic behavior of the Multi-Dimensional graph. FIRST PHASE: The Input and Storage of InformationThe first phase is divided by two sections follow by: Input and Storage sections (See Diagram 1: Stage 1).

INPUT SECTIONThe first section proposes that in the MGS-System exist many inputs of information (I _Xi) from different resources (See Expression 1). The inputs of information (I _Xi) can be classified by quantitative and qualitative respectively, but also the inputs of information (I _Xi) can be classified by positive (+) or negative (-) information follows by expression 1:

(1.) I _Xi = ƒ ( +/-I _X1 , +/-I _X2 , …, +/-I _X∞…) ≡ I _Xi = ƒ ( +/-I _Xi) thus i =1,2,…,∞

STORAGE SECTION

The second section in the first phase explain about how the inputs of information (I _Xi) is record in different Database (DB _Xi) thus i = 1,2,… ∞ (See Expression 2).

(2.) DB _Xi = ƒ (DB _X1< +/-I _X1>, DB _X2<+/-I _X2>,…, DB _x∞<+/-I _X∞> _…)

SECOND PHASE: The Visualization of Multi-Dimensional graphsThe Visualization of Multi-Dimensional graphs (MD) in real-time or live (See Diagram 1: Stage 2). It is based on constant inputs of information (I _xi) in each axis (X _i) respectively from different Database (DB _Xi) resources. Always each input of information (I _xi) is interconnected with its axis (X _i) respectively. All Multi-Dimensional graphs in the MGS-System always are running in real-time or live all the time (See Expression 3.)

(3.) MD = (X ₁: [ +/-I _x1], X ₂:[+/-I _x2] , …, X _∞:[+/-I _x∞] _…)

THIRD PHASE: The alert of possible failure(s) The third phase is given to us an alert of possible failures (See Diagram 1: Stage 3). It is depend on the position of the Multi-Dimensional graph get into its Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system. If the information is located in the negative -X _{i =} [-I _Xi] quadrant, then the MGS-system can alert about possible failures (See Expression 4. and 5.)

(4.) If -X ₁: [ –I _X1], -X ₂:[-I _X2] , …….…, -X _∞:[-I _X∞] _…

then -X ₁: [»Alert«], -X ₂:[»Alert«] , …, -X _∞:[»Alert«]

In fact, if any inputs of information are located in the negative quadrant -X _i:[-I _Xi] of the physical space coordinate system in the MGS-System, then this input of negative information (-I _Xi) will be called “ Failure(s)”. Therefore, if the MGS-System find any failure (-I _xi), then MGS-System starts to search ( ☼) for its possible solution (S _xi) immediately. It is according to expression 6.

(5.) S _xi = -I _X1 ☼ S _X1 : -I _X2 ☼ S _X2 : … : -I _X∞ ☼ S _X∞

FOURTH PHASE: The set of solution(s) (or economic policies)

The fourth phase is divided by two sections follow by Database of final solutions and Solutions (See Diagram 1: Stage 4).

DATABASE OF FINAL SOLUTIONSThe general database of final solutions are equal to the interconnection (╦) of large number database (DB _Xi) and each database has a large number of possible solutions (S _Xi) (See Expression 7).

∞ ∞ ∞(7.) DB _Xi = X ₁:[ Σ DB _X1 X1>] ╦ X ₂:[ Σ DBx ₂ 2>] ╦ …╦ X _∞ [ Σ DB _X∞ ∞>] X ₁ = 1 X ₂ = 1 X _∞ = 1

THE FINAL SOLUTIONS

In the process to choose the final solution (FS _Xi), it is equal to the multi-connection (╬) of long list of possible solutions (S _Xi) (See Expression 8 and 8.1.). Each solution (S _xi) depends on the Multi-Dimensional graph position into its Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system respectively (see Diagram 1: Stage 4). Hence, the establishment of parameters in each axis plays an important role in the process to find suitable solution(s) (economic policies) in the MGS-System.

(8.) FS _X1 ═ -I _{X1:1 ∩} S _{X1:1 →} DB _x1:1 ╬ FS _1:2 ═ -I _{X1:2 ∩} S _{X1:2 →} DB _x:1:2 ╬ … ╬ FS _X1:∞ ═ -I _{X1:∞ ∩} S _{X1:∞ →} DB _{x1: ∞}FS _X2 ═ -I _X:2:1∩ S _{X2:1 →} DB _x2:1 ╬ FS _2:2 ═ -I _{X:2:2 ∩} S _{X2:2 →} DB _x:2:2 ╬…. ╬ FS _X2:∞ ═ -I _{X:2: ∞ ∩} S _{X:2:∞ →} DB _x2:∞ . . . . . . . . . .FS _X∞ ═ -I _{X:∞:∞ ∩} S _{X∞:∞ →} DB _x:∞:∞ ╬ FS _∞:∞ ═ -I _{X:∞:∞ ∩} S _{X∞:∞ →} DB _x:∞:∞ ╬… ╬ FS _2:∞ ═ -I _{X:∞:∞ ∩} S _{X:∞:∞ →} DB _x:∞:∞ (8.1.) If FS _Xi ≡ ƒ (-I _Xi) then each -I _Xi finds its solution into its DB _xi respectivelyFIFTH PHASE: The final output

The final output (FO) (See Diagram 1: Phase 5) is originated from the last partial differentiation (ƒ ⁱ) from the large list of solutions (S _xi). In fact, the MGS-System starts to apply partial differentiation (ƒ ⁱ) from the first group of solutions until arrive to the final solution. The idea is debugging ( ◊) until we can arrive to the best solution (or best economic policy) with less risk and less vulnerable (See Expression 9).

(9.)

ƒ(S _X1) = Sx ₁ ◊ Sx ₂ ◊… ◊ Sx _∞

ƒ (S _x2)’ = Sx ₁ ◊ Sx ₂ ◊… ◊ Sx _∞

ƒ (S _X3)’’ = Sx ₁ ◊ Sx ₂ ◊… ◊ Sx _∞

. = . . . .

. = . . . .

. = . . . .

ƒ(S _Xi) ⁱ = 0 thus i = 1,2…∞

4. CONCLUSION

This research paper concludes that it is possible to visualize Multi-dimensional graphs in real time or live. The MGS-System can be a powerful visual analytical tool for policy makers, central banks and academics in the process to observe complex economic scenarios interact simultaneously in the same graphical space from a Multi-dimensional view. The idea is to demonstrate that economics is alive and it is not a static and 2-Dimensional phenomenon.5. REFERENCES

Ruiz Estrada, M. 2007. “Econographicology”, International Journal of Economic Research (IJER), Serial Publications, Vol. 4, No.1, pp. 93-104.

Ruiz Estrada, M. 2008. “Econographicology”, E-Monograph, University of Malaya (UM), Faculty of Economics and Administration (FEA). Layout by CyDesign Co. pp. 1-240.

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References

• Ruiz Estrada, M. 2007. “Econographicology”, International Journal of Economic Research ( IJER), Serial Publications, Vol. 4, No.1, pp. 93-104. (Link->)
• Ruiz Estrada, M. 2008. “Econographicology”, E-Monograph, University of Malaya ( UM), Faculty of Economics and Administration (FEA). Layout by CyDesign Co. pp. 1-240. (Link->)

Selected Links

• Econographication Virtual Laboratory (EVL)
• SSRN