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We need to add at least 22 million good paying jobs in America – not 3 or 4 million – US economic crisis 2009

20 Tuesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Activism, Human Rights, Civil Rights, Learning, How To, Online Resourcing, New Technology, Banks Banking Bailouts Wall Street Foreclosures Bankruptcies IMF World Bank Federal Reserve US Treasury, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, cricketdiane, got no money guides, New Boston Tea Party Actions, resourcing, Russia - EU - Middle East - UN - UK - Asia - China - Japan - South America - WTO, Security Contractors Spies Ex-Spies - Intel Contractors - Xe - Blackwater - CIA - NSA - Intelligence - Interpol - MI6 - Mossad - KGB - Secrets and Spy Tools Intelligence Technology, Start a Business - Tech StartUps - Innovation - Entrepreneurship Business Info - Business How To - Business StartUp Financing Capital, US Government, US budget, US and State budget deficits, budget cuts, Constitutional issues, US economic crisis, US debt, walking dead men club, XI-1

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On CNN’s Lou Dobbs show tonight there was an “expert” saying that we have lost x number of jobs (over 2 million) and because each month another 1.5 million jobs are needed in order to absorb the greater number of employable, therefore we need to add 4 million jobs in America. So, I wrote this to their email because that was about too stupid to not send something to correct it.

I’m appalled at the degree of willingness of paid “experts” to subject us to their perception management tactics, “framing” and interpreting the issues for us, expressing misguided and disingenuous “facts” loosely based on reality, and pretending or projecting that reality is different than it is. Those are the tactics that got us in this mess and kept it going until we’ve damn near lost America because of it. (anyway, I didn’t write this part to tell them at the Lou Dobbs, CNN show – I wrote this below and sent it –

When there are 11.1 million people unemployed and 8.6 million people forced to work part-time when they neither need or want to work part-time (by US government’s low-ball estimates), that is conservatively 19.7 million good-paying jobs America is missing. So, how many jobs need to be put in place right now isn’t even in the neighborhood of 4 million as described by the expert on your show.

America needs 20 million jobs to replace those that have been lost as evidenced by the numbers of unemployed and underemployed currently plus an additional growth of +/- 2 million jobs per month to accommodate our growing population of employable individuals.

The grossly underestimated numbers given by your expert on tonight’s show was a continuing failure by academics, experts, government agencies and news organizations which has been and is still aggravating the problem. There can be no solutions where our larger community believes our economic difficulties are only a fifth of what they actually are. Your audience living in its own small communities around the globe, but especially in the US, already know that the problem is much greater than you are saying because it is being experienced first hand. Why don’t you and your producers know that?

– cricketdiane, 01-20-09

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Do you have any idea what handstands the US government requires for the poorest of the poor to receive even $600 a month – and they give banks billions, no questions asked?

15 Thursday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/business/18pay.html

By LOUISE STORY
Published: December 17, 2008

E. Stanley O’Neal, the former chief executive of Merrill Lynch, was paid $46 million in 2006, $18.5 million of it in cash.

But Merrill’s record earnings in 2006 — $7.5 billion — turned out to be a mirage. The company has since lost three times that amount, largely because the mortgage investments that supposedly had powered some of those profits plunged in value.

Unlike the earnings, however, the bonuses have not been reversed.

As regulators and shareholders sift through the rubble of the financial crisis, questions are being asked about what role lavish bonuses played in the debacle.

For Wall Street, much of this decade represented a new Gilded Age. Salaries were merely play money — a pittance compared to bonuses. Bonus season became an annual celebration of the riches to be had in the markets. That was especially so in the New York area, where nearly $1 out of every $4 that companies paid employees last year went to someone in the financial industry. Bankers celebrated with five-figure dinners, vied to outspend each other at charity auctions and spent their newfound fortunes on new homes, cars and art.

More than 100 people in Merrill’s bond unit alone broke the million-dollar mark in 2006. Goldman Sachs paid more than $20 million apiece to more than 50 people that year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

***

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/series/the_reckoning/index.html

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Economics / Macro-economics is taught in the classroom – must be studied in the real world –

14 Wednesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in America - USA, Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Apples and Oranges, Business Methods, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Creating Solutions for America, Creating Solutions for Real-life, Creating Solutions That Work, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, diane c phillips, Economics, Economy, Genius At Work, got no money guide, Helping To Fix Solvable Problems

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNutPC0c67PA
video on bloomberg of Philip Manduca  – aired US 3.44 amET – 01-14-09

This man actually showed very accurate insight into the current situation during his interview last night (3.44 a.m. here) on bloomberg from London.

I woke up to watch it because something was different in the quality of what he was saying and there were many valuable points which were accurate rather than whatever it is that other analysts are using.

For one thing, it is finally being said that projections based on yesterday’s numbers cannot accurately predict what is in front of us. And, that is part of what is causing analysts and economists to forecast incorrectly to such a dismal extent.

I collected these few resources today about macro-economic theory in light of differing schools of thought – particularly the Austrian school. It is very enlightening, although I don’t fully agree that it is one or the other.

What I do believe is that we have every opportunity now to study the true evolution of macro-economics in reality. These are events that have not been written and cannot be tallied nor projected by previous theoretical models and analysis predicated upon yesterday’s numbers.

This is why economics must be studied in the real world, in real time and not in the classroom. And, it is why economics and macro-economics are taught in the classroom to students of many varied and specialized focuses.

We are in a most exciting time where new influences can be constructed, applied and the results charted, analyzed, studied and perhaps, changed to something else in real time applied economic science.

– cricketdiane, 01-14-09

Some things I found –

The Austrian School has consistently argued that a  traditionalist  approach to inflation yields the most accurate understanding of the causes (and the cure) for inflation. Austrian economists maintain that inflation is always and everywhere simply an increase in the money supply (i.e. units of currency or means of exchange), which in turn leads to a higher nominal price level for assets (such as housing) and other goods and services in demand, as the real value of each monetary unit is eroded, loses purchasing power and thus buys fewer goods and services.

Given that all major economies currently have a central bank supporting the private banking system, almost all new money is supplied into the economy by way of bank-created credit (or debt). Austrian economists believe that this bank-created credit growth (which forms the bulk of the money supply) sets off and creates volatile business cycles (see Austrian Business Cycle Theory) and maintain that this  wave-like  or  boomerang  effect on economic activity is one of the most damaging effects of monetary inflation.

According to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, it is the central bank’s policy of ineffectually attempting to control the complex multi-faceted ever-evolving market economy that creates volatile credit cycles or business cycles, and, as a necessary by-product, inflation (especially in asset markets). By the central bank artificially  stimulating  the economy with artificially low interest rates (thereby permitting excessive increases in the money supply), the government-sponsored central bank itself allows debasement of the means of exchange (inflation), often focused in asset or capital markets, resulting in  false signals  going out to the market place, in turn resulting in clusters of malinvestments, and the artificial lowering of the returns on savings, which eventually causes the malinvestments to be liquidated as they inevitably show their underlying unprofitability and unsustainability.[23]

Contemporary neo-Austrian economists claim to adopt economic subjectivism more consistently than any other school of economics and reject many neoclassical formalisms. For example, while neoclassical economics formalizes the economy as an equilibrium system with supply and demand in balance, Austrian economists emphasize its dynamic, perpetually dis-equilibrated nature.

This is the one area where Austrians differs most significantly from other schools of economic thought. Mainstream schools such as the neoclassical economists, the Chicago school of economics, the Keynesians and New Keynesians, adopt mathematical and statistical methods, and focus on induction and empirical observation to construct and test theories; while Austrians reject this approach in favor of deduction and logically deduced inferences. Austrians stress deduction because deduction, if performed correctly, leads to certain conclusions and inferences that must be true. Though Austrians do not discount induction, they hold that it does not assure certainty like deduction. Mainstream economists do not argue with this assertion, but believe the conclusions that can be reached by pure logical deduction are limited and weak.[19]

Austrian School theorists, like Ludwig von Mises, insist that praxeology must be value-free—that the method does not answer the question  should this policy be implemented? , but rather  if this policy is implemented, will it have the effects you intend ? However, Austrian economists often make policy recommendations that call for the elimination of government regulations and their policy prescriptions often overlap with libertarian or anarcho-capitalist solutions. These recommendations are similar to, but further reaching than the minarchist ideas of Chicago School economists, and frequently address topics other schools avoid, such as monetary reform.[17] Both schools advocate strict protection of private property, and support for individualism in general,[18] and are often cited by libertarian, classical or laissez-faire liberal, fiscal conservative, and Objectivist groups for support.

The influence that Austrian school ideas have had on Keynesian macroeconomics is often overlooked[citation needed]. Keynes himself acknowledged being exposed to the Misesian notion that “nominal” values could have “real” effects. A further source of this influence is the period of time when the London School of Economics brought in Hayek and other “continental” economists.[citation needed]While their students, though initially receptive, ultimately were drawn to the new Keynesian doctrines, many of the Hayekian concepts, particularly those relating time to the value of capital and its importance, would find their way into the work of Keynesians, especially by way of John Hicks (who, while distancing himself from Keynesianism, nonetheless made the most influential attempt to formalize it).[citation needed]

The former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, speaking of the originators of the School, said in 2000, “the Austrian school have reached far into the future from when most of them practiced and have had a profound and, in my judgment, probably an irreversible effect on how most mainstream economists think in this country.”[11] Republican U.S. congressman Ron Paul is a firm believer in Austrian school economics and has authored six books on the subject.[12][13] Paul’s former economic adviser, Peter Schiff,[14] is an adherent of the Austrian school.[15]

Austrian economics was ill-thought of by most economists after World War II because it rejected observational methods.[citation needed] Its reputation rose somewhat in the late 20th century with the work of Israel Kirzner and Ludwig Lachmann, as well as a renewed interest in Hayek after he won the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (a.k.a. the Nobel Prize in Economics).[9] However, it remains a distinctly minority position, even in such areas as capital value. Currently, universities with a significant Austrian presence are George Mason University and Loyola University New Orleans in the United States, and Universidad Francisco Marroquín in Guatemala. The library of Universidad Francisco Marroquín is named after Ludwig von Mises, and the university also provides seminars and lectures through a program named for Austrian School proponent Henry Hazlitt. Austrian economic ideas are also promoted heavily by bodies such as the Mises Institute and the Foundation for Economic Education.

[edit] Influence

According to the Austrian economist Peter J. Boettke, during its history the position of the Austrian school within economics profession has changed several times from the center to the fringe of the mainstream, and currently its position lies between mainstream and heterodox economics.[10] While often controversial, the Austrian School has been historically influential due to its emphasis on the creative phase (i.e. the time element) of economic productivity and its questioning of the basis of the behavioral theory underlying neoclassical economics.[citation needed]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School

Ludwig von Mises was one of the last members of the original austrian school of economics. He earned his doctorate in law and economics from the University of Vienna in 1906. One of his best works, The Theory of Money and Credit, was published in 1912 and was used as a money and banking textbook for the next two decades. In it Mises extended Austrian marginal utility theory to money, which, noted Mises, is demanded for its usefulness in purchasing other goods rather than for its own sake.

In that same book Mises also argued that business cycles are caused by the uncontrolled expansion of bank credit. In 1926 Mises founded the Austrian Institute for Business Cycle Research. His most influential student, Friedrich Hayek, later developed Mises’s business cycle theories.

Another of Mises’s notable contributions is his claim that socialism must fail economically. In a 1920 article, Mises argued that a socialist government could not make the economic calculations required to organize a complex economy efficiently. Although socialist economists Oskar Lange and Abba Lerner disagreed with him, modern economists agree that Mises’s argument, combined with Hayek’s elaboration of it, is correct (see socialism).

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Mises.html
LIBRARY of Economics and Liberty

http://mises.org/
Ludwig von Mises
Jan 13, 2009 … The Ludwig von Mises Institute is the research and educational center of classical liberalism and the Austrian School of economics.

Falling Prices Are the Antidote to Deflation
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Daily Article: Wednesday, January 14, 2009 by George Reisman
Thumbnail

A disastrous economic confusion, one that is shared almost universally, both by laymen and by professional economists alike, is the belief that falling prices constitute deflation and thus must be feared and, if possible, prevented. Contrary to The Times and so many others, deflation is not falling prices but a decrease in the quantity of money and/or volume of spending in the economic system.

***

Contemporary neo-Austrian economists claim to adopt economic subjectivism more consistently than any other school of economics and reject many neoclassical formalisms. For example, while neoclassical economics formalizes the economy as an equilibrium system with supply and demand in balance, Austrian economists emphasize its dynamic, perpetually dis-equilibrated nature.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School

***

Following their definition, Austrian economists measure the inflation by calculating the growth of what they call ‘the true money supply’, i.e. how many new units of money that are available for immediate use in exchange, that have been created over time.[27][28][29]

This interpretation of inflation implies that inflation is always a distinct action taken by the central government or its central bank, which permits or allows an increase in the money supply.[30] In addition to state-induced monetary expansion, the Austrian School also maintains that the effects of increasing the money supply are magnified by credit expansion, as a result of the fractional-reserve banking system employed in most economic and financial systems in the world.[31]

Austrians claim that the state uses inflation as one of the three means by which it can fund its activities, the other two being taxing and borrowing.[32] Therefore, they often seek to identify the reasons for why the state needs to create new money and what the new money is used for. Various forms of military spending is often cited as a reason for resorting to inflation and borrowing, as this can be a short term way of acquiring marketable resources and is often favored by desperate, indebted governments.[33] In other cases, the central bank may try avoid or defer the widespread bankruptcies and insolvencies which cause economic recessions or depressions by artificially trying to  stimulate  the economy through  encouraging  money supply growth and further borrowing via artificially low interest rates.[34]

Austrian economists focus on the amplifying,  wave-like  effects of the credit cycle as the primary cause of most business cycles. Austrian economists assert that inherently damaging and ineffective central bank policies are the predominant cause of most business cycles, as they tend to set  artificial  interest rates too low for too long, resulting in excessive credit creation, speculative  bubbles  and  artificially  low savings.[41]

According to the Austrian business cycle theory, the business cycle unfolds in the following way. Low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system. This expansion of credit causes an expansion of the supply of money, through the money creation process in a fractional reserve banking system. This in turn leads to an unsustainable  monetary boom  during which the  artificially stimulated  borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. This boom results in widespread malinvestments, causing capital resources to be misallocated into areas which would not attract investment if the money supply remained stable. The global economic crisis of 2008 represents, according to some pundits, an example of the Austrian business cycle theory’s dependability.[42]

Austrian economists argue that a correction or  credit crunch  – commonly called a  recession  or  bust  – occurs when credit creation cannot be sustained. They claim that the money supply suddenly and sharply contracts when markets finally  clear , causing resources to be reallocated back toward more efficient uses.

The economic calculation problem is a criticism of socialist economics. It was first proposed by Ludwig von Mises in 1920 and later expounded by Friedrich Hayek.[43][44] The problem referred to is that of how to distribute resources rationally in an economy. The capitalist solution is the price mechanism; Mises and Hayek argued that this is the only viable solution, as the price mechanism co-ordinates supply and investment decisions most efficiently (provided there is no distortion of the price mechanism by government or by the banks through fractional reserve banking).

In his critique of Austrian economics, Caplan stated that Austrian economists have often misunderstood modern economics, causing them to overstate their differences with it. He argued that several of the most important Austrian claims are false or overstated. For example, Austrian economists object to the use of cardinal utility in microeconomic theory; however, microeconomic theorists go to great pains to show that their results hold for all monotonic transformations of utility, and so are true for purely ordinal preferences.[21] He has also criticized the school for rejecting on principle the use of mathematics or econometrics. In response, Austrians argue that neoclassical economists are innumerate and do not understand the mathematics they rely on.[49] Austrians also claim that econometrics is fundamentally based on mathematically and logically invalid summation and averaging of demonstrably non-additive personal utility functions, and therefore is subjective.[50]

There are also criticisms of specific Austrian theories. For example, Nobel laureate and neo-Keynesian economist Paul Krugman argued that Austrian business cycle theory implies that consumption would increase during downturns, and cannot explain the empirical observation that spending in all sectors of the economy fall during a recession.[51] Austrian theorists argue a recession can result from a monetary contraction or a  credit crunch  that causes the investment boom not to shift but simply to disappear.[52] Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, after examining the history of business cycles in the US, concluded that  The Hayek-Mises explanation of the business cycle is contradicted by the evidence. It is, I believe, false. [53][54]

Economist Jeffrey Sachs asserts that when comparing developed free-market economies, those that have high rates of taxation and high social welfare spending perform better on most measures of economic performance compared to countries with low rates of taxation and low social outlays. He asserts that poverty rates are lower, median income is higher, the budget has larger surpluses, and the trade balance is stronger (although unemployment tends to be higher). He concludes that von Hayek was wrong when he said that high taxation would be a threat to freedom; but rather, a generous social-welfare state leads to fairness, economic equality, international competitiveness, and strong vibrant democracies.[55] In response to Sachs’ article, William Easterly noted that Hayek, writing in 1944, correctly recognized the dangers of large-scale state economic planning. He also questions the validity of comparing poverty levels in the Nordic countries and the United States, when the former have been moving away from social planning toward a more market-based economy, and the latter has historically taken in impoverished immigrants. Easterly also argues that laissez-faire countries were the leaders of  the ongoing global industrial revolution  which is responsible for abolishing much of the world’s poverty.[56]

[edit] Seminal works

* Principles of Economics (1871) by Carl Menger
* Capital and Interest (1884-1921) by Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk
* Human Action (1940-1949) by Ludwig von Mises
* Economics in One Lesson (1946) by Henry Hazlitt
* Individualism and Economic Order (1948) by Friedrich Hayek
* Man, Economy, and State (1962) by Murray N. Rothbard
* Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973) by Israel M. Kirzner
* Capitalism (1998) by George Reisman

[edit] See also
Economics portal

* Newtonian time in economics, a debate concerning whether Newtonian time is an appropriate concept to use in economics
* Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, one of the most prominent organs of the Austrian School in academia
***
But it is in the macro sphere, unwisely hived off from the micro by economists who remain after sixty years ignorant of Ludwig von Mises’s achievement in integrating them, it is here that Friedman’s influence has been at its most baleful. For we find Friedman bearing heavy responsibility both for the withholding tax system and for the disastrous guaranteed annual income looming on the horizon. At the same time, we find Friedman calling for absolute control by the State over the supply of money – a crucial part of the market economy. Whenever the government has, fitfully and almost by accident, stopped increasing the money supply (as Nixon did for several months in the latter half of 1969), Milton Friedman has been there to raise the banner of inflation once again. And wherever we turn, we find Milton Friedman, proposing not measures on behalf of liberty, not programs to whittle away the Leviathan State, but measures to make the power of that State more efficient, and hence, at bottom, more terrible.

THE IMPACT OF FRIEDMAN

And so, as we examine Milton Friedman’s credentials to be the leader of free-market economics, we arrive at the chilling conclusion that it is difficult to consider him a free-market economist at all. Even in the micro sphere, Friedman’s theoretical concessions to the egregious ideal of  perfect competition  would permit a great deal of governmental trust-busting, and his neighborhood-effect concession to a government intervention could permit a virtual totalitarian state, even though Friedman illogically confines its application to a few areas. But even here, Friedman uses this argument to justify the State’s provision of mass education to everyone.

One of Friedman’s crucial errors in his plan of turning all monetary power over to the State is that he fails to understand that this scheme would be inherently inflationary. For the State would then have in its complete power the issuance of as great a supply of money as it desired. Friedman’s advice to restrict this power to an expansion of 3–4% per year ignores the crucial fact that any group, coming into the possession of the absolute power to  print money,  will tend to . . . print it  Suppose that John Jones is granted by the government the absolute power, the compulsory monopoly, over the printing press, and allowed to issue as much money as he sees fit, and to use it in any way that he sees fit. Isn’t it crystal clear that Jones will use this power of legalized counterfeiting to a fare-thee-well, and therefore that his rule over money will tend to be inflationary? In the same way, the State has long arrogated to itself the compulsory monopoly of legalized counterfeiting, and so it has tended to use it: hence, the State is inherently inflationary, as would be any group with the sole power to create money. Friedman’s scheme would only intensify that power and that inflation.

The only libertarian solution, in contrast, is to make the State disgorge its hoards of commodity money. Franklin Roosevelt, under cover of a  depression emergency,  confiscated all of the gold held by the American people in 1933, and nothing has been said for nearly four decades about giving our gold back. In contrast to Friedman, the genuine libertarian must call upon the government to give the people back their stolen gold, which the government had seized from us in return for its paper dollars.

A Return to the Gold Standard

There is no question about the fact that the present international monetary system is an irrational and abortive monstrosity, and needs drastic reform. But Friedman’s proposed reform, of cutting all ties with gold, would make matters far worse, for it would leave everyone at the complete mercy of his own fiat-issuing state. We need to move precisely in the opposite direction: to an international gold standard that would restore commodity money everywhere and get all the money-manipulating states off the backs of the peoples of the world.

Under a fiat system, the currency name – dollar, frank, mark, etc. – becomes the ultimate monetary standard, and absolute control over the supply and use of these units is necessarily vested in the central government. In short, fiat currency is inherently the money of absolute statism. Money is the central commodity, the nerve center, as it were, of the modern market economy, and any system that vests the absolute control of that commodity in the hands of the State is hopelessly incompatible with a free-market economy or, ultimately, with individual liberty itself.

Yet, Milton Friedman is a radical advocate of cutting all current ties, however weak, with gold, and going onto a total and absolute fiat dollar standard, with all control vested in the Federal Reserve System.* Of course, Friedman would then advise the Fed to use that absolute power wisely, but no libertarian worth the name can have anything but contempt for the very idea of vesting coercive power in any group and then hoping that such group will not use its power to the utmost. The reasons that Friedman is totally blind to the tyrannical and despotic implications of his fiat money scheme is, once again, the arbitrary Chicagoite separation between the micro and the macro, the vain, chimerical hope that we can have totalitarian control of the macro sphere while the  free market  is preserved in the micro. It should be clear by now that this kind of a truncated, Chicagoite micro- free market  is  free  only in the most mocking and ironic sense: it is far more the Orwellian  freedom  of  Freedom is Slavery.

In short, while Milton Friedman has performed a service in bringing back to the notice of the economics profession the overriding influence of money and the money supply on business cycles, we must recognize that this  purely monetarist  approach is almost the exact reverse of the sound – as well as truly free-market – Austrian view. For while the Austrians hold that Strong’s monetary expansion made a later 1929 crash inevitable, Fisher-Friedman believe that all the Fed needed to do was to pump more money in to offset any recession. Believing that there is no causal influence running from boom to bust, believing in the simplistic  Dance of the Dollar  theory, the Chicagoites simply want government to manipulate that dance, specifically to increase the money supply to offset recession.

During the 1930s, therefore, the Fisher-Chicago position was that, in order to cure the depression, the price level needed to be  reflated  back to the levels of the 1920s, and that reflation should be accomplished by:

1. the Fed expanding the money supply, and
2. the Federal government engaging in deficit spending and large-scale public works programs.

In short, during the 1930s, Fisher and the Chicago School were  pre-Keynes Keynesians,  and were, for that reason, considered quite radical and socialistic – and with good reason. Like the later Keynesians, the Chicagoans favored a  compensatory  monetary and fiscal policy, though always with greater stress on the monetary arm.

It was Irving Fisher, his doctrines, and his influence, which was in large part responsible for the disastrous inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve System during the 1920s, and therefore for the subsequent holocaust of 1929. One of the major aims of Benjamin Strong, head of the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of New York and virtual dictator of the Fed during the 1920s, was, under the influence of the Fisher doctrine, to keep the price level constant. And since wholesale prices were either constant or actually falling during the 1920s, Fisher, Strong, and the rest of the economic Establishment refused to recognize that an inflationary problem even existed. So, as a result, Strong, Fisher, and the Fed refused to heed the warnings of such heterodox economists as Ludwig von Mises and H. Parker Willis during the 1920s that the unsound bank credit inflation was leading to an inevitable economic collapse.

So pig-headed were these worthies that, as late as 1930, Fisher, in his swansong as economic prophet, wrote that there was no depression, and that the stock market collapse was only temporary.13

This article originally appeared in The Individualist in 1971, and was reprinted in the Journal of Libertarian Studies in the Fall 2002 issue.

Chicago or Austrian Schools of Free Market Economy?
Milton Friedman Unraveled

by Murray N. Rothbard

*This is, in fact, exactly what happened within a few years of this article’s original publication. See Murray N. Rothbard, What Has Government Done To Our Money? (Auburn, Ala.: Ludwig von Mises Institute, 1990). – Ed.

(From the Journal of Libertarian Studies, Volume 16, no. 4 (Fall 2002), pp. 37–54)

Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995), the founder of modern libertarianism and the dean of the Austrian School of economics, was the author of The Ethics of Liberty and For a New Liberty and many other books and articles. He was also academic vice president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute and the Center for Libertarian Studies, and the editor – with Lew Rockwell – of The Rothbard-Rockwell Report.

Copyright © 2003 Ludwig von Mises Institute
All rights reserved.

Murray Rothbard Archives

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard43.html

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So, if the economic stability forum and world ecnomic forum can see it – what is the problem with the US?

13 Tuesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Alexander Hamilton, Creating Solutions for America, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, diane c phillips, Economics, Economy, How-to, Macro-economics future forecasting, Money, Physics of Change, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, resourcing, Solving Impossible Problems, Sparky Phillips, Systems Analysis, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US Government, USA -1, Workable Solutions

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http://www.weforum.org/en/events/ArchivedEvents/WorldEconomicForumontheMiddleEast2008/index.htm

http://www.weforum.org/en/index.htm

Global Risks 2009, a new report from the World Economic Forum, identifies a deteriorating global economy, a hard landing in China, a collapse in asset prices, gaps in global governance and issues relating to natural resources and climate as the pivotal risks facing the world this year. “This report highlights the need for concerted action to mitigate risks that now more than ever are global in their nature and in their impact, as illustrated by the financial crisis,” said Sheana Tambourgi, Head of the Global Risk Network.

***
Basel II Implementation in Singapore

On 26 June 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published its Revised Framework on “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards” (commonly referred to as “Basel II”).  Basel II has been designed as a more risk-sensitive framework for establishing minimum levels of capital for internationally active banks than the 1988 Basel Capital Accord (commonly referred to as “Basel I”).  Basel II comprises three “pillars”: Pillar 1 prescribes the minimum capital requirements to support a bank’s credit, market and operational risks.  Pillar 2 describes the accompanying supervisory review of a bank’s internal capital adequacy assessment.  It encourages banks to continually develop and use better risk management techniques to monitor and manage their risks, and to have processes for assessing their overall capital adequacy in relation to their risk profile.  Pillar 3 prescribes minimum disclosure to facilitate market discipline.

MAS supports the broad objectives of Basel II and believes that it will incentivise improvements in risk management, as well as complement MAS’ supervisory objectives.  MAS has implemented Basel II in Singapore for all Singapore-incorporated banks on 1 January 2008.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/fin_development/banking/Basel_II.html

http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs107.htm
Basel II: International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework
June 2004

Note: This document has been incorporated in the comprehensive version of International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: A Revised Framework, including the elements of the 1988 Accord that were not revised during the Basel II process, the 1996 Amendment to the Capital Accord to Incorporate Market Risks, and the 2005 paper on The Application of Basel II to Trading Activities and the Treatment of Double Default Effects.

1. This report presents the outcome of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s (“the Committee”) work over recent years to secure international convergence on revisions to supervisory regulations governing the capital adequacy of internationally active banks. Following the publication of the Committee’s first round of proposals for revising the capital adequacy framework in June 1999, an extensive consultative process was set in train in all member countries and the proposals were also circulated to supervisory authorities worldwide. The Committee subsequently released additional proposals for consultation in January 2001 and April 2003 and furthermore conducted three quantitative impact studies related to its proposals. As a result of these efforts, many valuable improvements have been made to the original proposals. The present paper is now a statement of the Committee agreed by all its members. It sets out the details of the agreed Framework for measuring capital adequacy and the minimum standard to be achieved which the national supervisory authorities represented on the Committee will propose for adoption in their respective countries. This Framework and the standard it contains have been endorsed by the Central Bank Governors and Heads of Banking Supervision of the Group of Ten countries.

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Prolonged exposure to disruptions in market normalcy amplify and hasten market collapse – US and Global economic crisis

13 Tuesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Business Methods, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, Economics, Economy, Freedom of Thought, Genius At Work, How-to, Intelligence, Inventing Solutions For America, Liberty, Macro-economics future forecasting, Money, Principles of Economics, Real-World, Solving Difficult Problems in Real Life Real World Real, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Subconscious Cross-Reference and Recall, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US Government, USA -1, Workable Solutions

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What drove most directly the absolute
and relative dimensions of loss were the strategic decisions that
some firms made to retain large exposures in super-senior
tranches of CDOs that far exceeded the firms’ appreciation of
the risks inherent in such instruments. Firms did not recognize
the possibility that losses on the underlying MBS could reach
levels that could impair the value of even the super-senior
tranches of collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed
securities (ABS CDOs).

II. SUMMARY OF KEY OBSERVATIONS
AND CONCLUSIONS
The market distress that began in the second half of 2007
occurred after an extended period of ample financial market
liquidity and generally low credit spreads. The banking
organizations and securities firms in our sample entered the
turmoil in relatively sound financial condition and generally
with capital well above regulatory requirements. However, as
a result of these events, many firms absorbed significant losses,
and the prolonged disruption in market liquidity stressed most
firms’ liquidity and capital.
The widespread retraction of interest among investors in
purchasing various kinds of assets caused many major financial
services firms to experience substantial write-downs and
unexpected losses in their portfolios; some firms have
subsequently had to raise new capital. Financial businesses
such as those involved in the syndication to external investors
of leveraged loans to corporate borrowers faced dwindling
demand for their products and consequently losses as positions
had to be marked down.
But the primary source of losses came from concentrated
exposures that some major financial services organizations had
to U.S. subprime mortgage-related credit, particularly in
businesses involved in the warehousing, structuring, and
trading of CDOs backed by such credits. Several firms found
that their aggregate exposure to this risk was larger than they
initially recognized. What drove most directly the absolute
and relative dimensions of loss were the strategic decisions that
some firms made to retain large exposures in super-senior
tranches of CDOs that far exceeded the firms’ appreciation of
the risks inherent in such instruments. Firms did not recognize
the possibility that losses on the underlying MBS could reach
levels that could impair the value of even the super-senior
tranches of collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed
securities (ABS CDOs).
Many firms were more vulnerable to a prolonged
disruption in market liquidity than they expected. Firms were
surprised by the nature and length of the market disruption
and were forced to fund exposures that they had not
anticipated in their contingency funding plans. This included
retaining exposures in warehouse portfolios for significantly
longer periods of time than expected when firms realized they
were unable to find buyers for securities such as residential
mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), ABS CDOs, and highyield
bond exposures. Firms likewise found that they could
neither syndicate to external investors their leveraged loan
commitments to corporate borrowers nor cancel their
commitments to fund those loans despite material and adverse
changes in the availability of funding from other investors in
the market. Moreover, some firms were required to fund
contractual commitments backstopping a range of offbalance-
sheet financing vehicles that they had not anticipated
they would have to fund themselves, such as ABCP conduits.
In other cases, firms under no contractual obligations still
provided voluntary support to these and other off-balancesheet
financing vehicles, including structured investment
vehicles (SIVs), because of concerns about the potential
damage to their reputations and to their future ability to sell
investments in such vehicles if they failed to provide support
during the period of market distress.
Nevertheless, during the turmoil, all firms were able to
obtain adequate liquidity to fund their operations and, in
certain cases, to bring additional assets onto their balance
sheets that they had not planned to fund. However, all firms
faced higher funding costs and, in most cases, did not have as
much contingent funding liquidity as they would have liked.
While firms were neither universally effective nor
ineffective across all relevant dimensions, our supervisory
group identified actions and decisions that have tended to
differentiate firms’ performance during the period of market
turbulence through year-end 2007. Some firms recognized the
emerging additional risks and took deliberate actions to limit
or mitigate them. Others recognized the additional risks but
accepted them. Still other firms did not fully recognize the
risks in time to mitigate them adequately. Many of our
observations on risk management practices relate to the
decisions that firms made to take, manage, measure, aggregate,
and hedge (or not hedge) such exposures. In particular, we
found important differences in firms’ approaches to four
firm-wide risk management practices and to three specific
business lines.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/banking/2008/ssg_risk_mgt_doc_final.pdf

Firms that avoided such problems demonstrated a comprehensive approach to viewing firm-wide exposures and risk, sharing quantitative and qualitative information more effectively across the firm and engaging in more effective dialogue across the management team. Senior managers in such firms also exercised critical judgment and discipline in how they valued its holdings of complex or potentially illiquid securities both before and after the onset of the market turmoil. They had more adaptive (rather than static) risk measurement processes and systems that could rapidly alter underlying assumptions to reflect current circumstances;
management also relied on a wide range of risk measures to gather more information and different perspectives on the same risk exposures and employed more effective stress testing with more use of scenario analysis.
In addition, management of better performing firms typically enforced more active controls over the consolidated organization’s balance sheet, liquidity, and capital, often aligning treasury functions more closely with risk management processes, incorporating information from all businesses into global liquidity planning, including actual and contingent liquidity risk.
Using the observations of the report to set expectations, primary supervisors are critically evaluating the efforts of the individual firms they supervise to address weaknesses in risk management practices that emerged during the period of market turmoil. Each supervisor is ensuring that its firms are making appropriate changes in risk management practices, including addressing deficiencies in senior management oversight, in the use of risk measurement techniques, in stress testing, and in contingency funding planning.
Finally, our observations help to define an agenda for strengthening supervisory oversight of relevant areas. In particular, we have identified the following areas relevant to this agenda.
First, we will use the results of our review to support the efforts of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to strengthen the efficacy and robustness of the Basel II capital framework by:
• reviewing the framework to enhance the incentives for firms to develop more forward-looking approaches to risk measures (beyond capital measures) that fully incorporate expert judgment on exposures, limits, reserves, and capital; and
• ensuring that the framework sets sufficiently high standards for what constitutes risk transfer, increases capital charges for certain securitized assets and asset-backed commercial paper liquidity facilities, and provides sufficient scope for addressing implicit support and reputational risks.
Second, our observations support the need to strengthen the management of liquidity risk, and we will continue to work directly through the appropriate international forums
(for example, the Basel Committee, International Organization of Securities Commissions, and the Joint Forum) on both planned and ongoing work in this regard.
Third, based on our shared observations from this review, individual national supervisors will review and strengthen, as appropriate, existing guidance on risk management practices, valuation practices, and the controls over both.
Fourth and finally, we will support efforts in the appropriate forums to address issues that may benefit from discussion among market participants, supervisors, and other key players (such as accountants). One such issue relates to the quality and timeliness of public disclosures made by financial services firms and the question whether improving disclosure practices
would reduce uncertainty about the scale of potential losses associated with problematic exposures. Another may be to discuss the appropriate accounting and disclosure treatments of exposures to off-balance-sheet vehicles. A third may be to consider the challenges in managing incentive problems created by compensation practices.

FRANCE
Banking Commission
Didier Elbaum
Alain Laurin
Guy Levy-Rueff
Frederick Visnovsky
GERMANY
Federal Financial
Supervisory Authority
Sabine Lautenschläger-Peiter
Peter Lutz
SWITZERLAND
Federal Banking Commission
Tim Frech
Roland Goetschmann
Thomas Hirschi
Daniel Sigrist
UNITED KINGDOM
Financial Services Authority
Stan Bereza
Nicholas Newland
Andrea Pack
UNITED STATES
Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Deborah P. Bailey
Roger T. Cole
Jon D. Greenlee
Steven M. Roberts
Federal Reserve Bank
of New York
Arthur G. Angulo
Brian L. Peters
William L. Rutledge
(Chairman)
Office of the Comptroller
of the Currency
Kathryn E. Dick
Douglas W. Roeder
Scott N. Waterhouse
Securities and Exchange
Commission
Matthew J. Eichner
Denise Landers
Michael A. Macchiaroli
Erik R. Sirri

Mr. Mario Draghi, Chairman
Financial Stability Forum
Bank for International Settlements
Centralbahnplatz 2
CH-4002 Basel
Switzerland
March 6, 2008

Specifically, supervisors focused on
practices related to the following:
• the role of senior management oversight in assessing
and responding to the changing risk landscape;
• the effectiveness of market and credit risk management
practices in understanding and managing the risks in
retained or traded exposures as well as in counterparty
exposures, in valuing complex and increasingly illiquid
products, and in limiting or hedging exposures to credit
and market risk, and
• the effectiveness of each firm’s liquidity risk
management practices in assessing its vulnerability to
that risk in a stressed environment and taking
appropriate action.

from:

http://www.fsforum.org/

Senior Supervisors Group’s Report on Observations on Risk Management Practices during the Recent Market Turbulence

http://www.fsforum.org/links/index.htm

Links to FSF members and other institutions

Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia
www.rba.gov.au
Australian Securities and Investments Commission
www.asic.gov.au
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority
www.apra.gov.au
The Treasury
www.treasury.gov.au
Canada
Bank of Canada
www.bank-banque-canada.ca
Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation
www.cdic.ca
Ontario Securities Commission
www.osc.gov.on.ca
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions
www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca
Department of Finance
www.fin.gc.ca
France
Banque de France
www.banque-france.fr
Autorité des Marchés Financiers
www.amf-france.org
Ministère de l’Economie
www.minefi.gouv.fr
Germany
Deutsche Bundesbank
www.bundesbank.de
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.bafin.de
Bundesministerium der Finanzen
www.bundesfinanzministerium.de
Hong Kong SAR
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
www.hkma.gov.hk
Office of the Commissioner of Insurance
www.info.gov.hk/oci
Securities & Futures Commission
www.hksfc.org.hk
The Treasury
www.info.gov.hk/tsy
Italy
Banca d’Italia
www.bancaditalia.it
Istituto per la Vigilanze sulle Assicurazioni Private e di Interesse Collettivo (ISVAP)
www.isvap.it
Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.consob.it
Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze
www.tesoro.it
Japan
Bank of Japan
www.boj.or.jp
Financial Services Agency
www.fsa.go.jp
Ministry of Finance
www.mof.go.jp
The Netherlands
De Nederlandsche Bank
www.dnb.nl
Autoriteit Financiële Markten
www.afm.nl
Ministerie van Financiën
www.minfin.nl
Singapore
Monetary Authority of Singapore
www.mas.gov.sg
Ministry of Finance
www.mof.gov.sg
Switzerland
Swiss National Bank
www.snb.ch
United Kingdom
Bank of England
www.bankofengland.co.uk
Financial Services Authority
www.fsa.gov.uk
HM Treasury
www.hm-treasury.gov.uk
United States of America
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)
www.fdic.gov
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
www.occ.treas.gov
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
www.federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
www.newyorkfed.org/
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
www.cftc.gov
National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC)
www.naic.org
U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC)
www.sec.gov
U.S. Department of Treasury
www.treasury.gov
International Organisations
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
www.bis.org
European Central Bank (ECB)
www.ecb.int
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
www.imf.org
Organisation for Economic Coordination and Development (OECD)
www.oecd.org
The World Bank
www.worldbank.org
International standard-setting bodies and other groupings
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS)
www.bis.org/bcbs/index.htm
Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS)
www.bis.org/cgfs/index.htm
Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS)
www.bis.org./cpss/index.htm
International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS)
www.iaisweb.org
International Accounting Standards Board (IASB)
www.iasb.org
International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)
www.iosco.org
International Association of Deposit Insurers
www.iadi.org

***

Many firms were more vulnerable to a prolonged
disruption in market liquidity than they expected. Firms were
surprised by the nature and length of the market disruption
and were forced to fund exposures that they had not
anticipated in their contingency funding plans.

***

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Accountability for TARP funds is written into the legislation and evidenced in GAO report / budget – US economic crisis

13 Tuesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Benjamin Franklin, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, Economics, Life In The USA - Rotterdam Club, Real Time Crises, Reality-based Analysis, Solutions, Solving Difficult Problems in Real Life Real World Real, Solving Impossible Problems, Sovereignty of the People, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Subconscious Cross-Reference and Recall, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US At Home - Domestic Policy, US Bill of Rights, US Constitution, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, We Come Bearing Gifts, Workable Solutions, XI-1

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bailouts, banking and finance services committee, banks, bonds, commercial paper, commodities, consumer based economy, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit markets, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, deflation, econometrics, economic development, economic models, economic stimulus, Economics, Economy, employment, evidence based analysis and policy, Federal Reserve, financial institutions, financial systems, gdp, global economic crisis, Global Economy, gnp, government, Great Depression of 2008 2009, housing, housing market, inflation, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Labor, macro-economic future forecasting, Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, mortgage backed securities, Physics of Change, Presidents Working Financial Group, Principles of Economics, Psychology, Quantum Physics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, recession, resourcing, Right Brain Thinking Skills Set, Rocket Science, Securities and Exchange Commission, Statistical Analysis, stock markets, stocks, unemployment, unsecured credit, US Congress, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, US House of Representatives, US Senate, US Treasury, Wall Street

http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008/08frusg.pdf

pg. 10 – 11

The following key points summarize economic performance in FY 2008.

*    After increasing by 2.7 percent in FY 2007, consumer spending was slightly negative over the four quarters of FY 2008, with a notable slowing in the final quarter.
*    Exports have been a key driver of the economy, maintaining a steady pace of growth in FY 2008 and accelerating markedly during the latter half of the fiscal year, but the outlook for exports is uncertain in view of the spreading world-wide recession.
*    Labor market conditions deteriorated during FY 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment declined at an average rate of 68,000 jobs per month in FY 2008, compared with the 109,000 average increase in jobs per month in FY 2007.

*   The unemployment rate trended steadily higher throughout FY 2008, reaching 6.1 percent at the very end of the fiscal year, compared to 4.7 percent at the end of FY 2007.
*    Overall inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), advanced to 5.3 percent in FY 2008, up significantly from the 2.4 percent pace of FY 2007. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) remained relatively contained, however, rising to 2.5 percent in FY 2008 versus 2.1 percent in FY 2007.

NOTE – The above figures although written in the GAO budget have obviously been revised at this time – unemployment rate admitted to be 7.2% by govt.

– also, inflation has increased significantly regardless of anything economic experts on news outlets say, as partly evidenced by this report and others.

***

Pg 12 – 14

The Path to Recovery, Part I – HERA

In July 2008, Congress passed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, based on concern that continued losses at Fannie and Freddie and throughout the U.S. housing/credit market could lead to significantly larger and broader problems for both the U.S. and foreign economies.

HERA established a new regulatory agency: the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) with enhanced regulatory authority over the housing Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs)3, including the capital requirements and business activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. HERA also provided the Treasury Secretary with temporary authority to purchase any obligations and other securities issued by the housing GSEs.

Due to deteriorating conditions in the housing mortgage markets and the resulting negative financial impact on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, FHFA placed them under conservatorship on September 7, 2008. This action was taken to preserve GSE assets, ensure a sound and solvent financial condition, and mitigate systemic risks that contributed to current market instability.

Placing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under protection of a conservatorship enabled the Government to avert the initial threat of failure and focus on the larger, systemic challenges, with the ultimate intention of restoring financial stability. Under the conservatorship, the conservator (FHFA) replaced the organization’s senior management and oversaw the continued operation of the GSEs.

***

Pursuant to the authorities provided to the Secretary of the Treasury under the HERA, the Treasury Department, on September 7, 2008, took three additional steps to help ensure the solvency and liquidity of the GSE while they are working to resolve their financial difficulties:
a    o entering into senior preferred stock purchase arrangements with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
b    o establishing a GSE credit facility; and
c    o establishing a GSE MBS purchase program.

***

HERA established the HOPE for Homeowners Program4, which provides another stop-gap measure by helping borrowers faced with foreclosure refinance through the Federal Housing Administration. Despite these actions, there was still a pressing need to address the more systemic challenges posed by the credit crisis.

3 The housing GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System) are chartered by the Federal Government and pursue a federally mandated mission to support housing finance. Some GSEs are distinctly established as corporate entities – owned by shareholders of stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The operations of the housing GSEs are not guaranteed by the Federal Government.

4 HOPE for Homeowners is a voluntary program for the refinancing of distressed loans by providing Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance for refinanced loans that meet certain eligibility requirements. Both borrower and lender must agree to participate in the program.

***

The Path to Recovery, Part II – EESA and TARP
In October 2008, Congress passed and the President signed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA), which authorized Treasury to establish and manage the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). In general, TARP authorizes the Government to provide additional protection and stability to financial markets through a wide array of mechanisms:

*           EESA authorizes the Government to purchase or insure up to $700 billion in troubled assets, such as securities and other financial instruments.

*           The Treasury Secretary had immediate access to the first $250 billion. Following that, an additional $100 billion was authorized by the President. The last $350 billion is subject to Presidential approval and Congressional review.

In its first use of the TARP, Treasury created the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) to purchase up to $250 billion in senior preferred shares in a wide variety of banks and other financial institutions. These will be largely non-voting shares, may be sold to a third party, and will pay a 5 percent dividend in the first 5 years, and 9 percent thereafter.

a    Any firm participating in the CPP will provide the Treasury Secretary with a warrant guaranteeing the right to purchase additional common shares worth up to 15 percent of the value of the preferred stock purchased. The purchase price will be the average stock selling price over the 20-day period before the preferred stock purchase. If the company is unable to issue a warrant, it may issue senior debt instead.

b    EESA provides for: (1) oversight by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and a Special Inspector General; and (2) transparency by requiring Treasury to make available an electronic description of assets acquired under the program.

– NOTE PROVISION ABOVE –
[my note that the above provision for accountability already exists]

***
Recovery Efforts and Actions
The following summarizes some of the recovery efforts to date and their impact on and implications for the Government’s consolidated financial statements.

It should be noted that, although HERA and EESA authorize the Government to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in the recovery effort, the majority of those funds have yet to actually be spent, and as a result, are not and would not be reported on the Government’s consolidated financial statements.

Generally, the Government has recorded the funds that have already been spent at cost. The Government expects to recover, if not earn a return on these funds.

Actions by Congress:
*    Passes HERA, which enhanced the regulatory framework and provided temporary authority for the Treasury Secretary to provide financial support to Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
*    Passes EESA, establishing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), authorizing the Treasury Department to use up to $700 billion in support of market stabilization efforts. The $700 billion limit shall be reduced by the difference between outstanding and guaranteed obligations under the EESA-authorized insurance program, if any, and the balance in the Troubled Assets Insurance Financing Fund (TAIFF), established by EESA to guarantee timely payments on mortgage-related assets.
*    Legislation only authorizes the Government to engage in specified market relief efforts. Authorizations by themselves do not impact either the Government’s financial statements or the deficit – the exercise of those authorities do.

Actions by the Federal Reserve System (Fed)
*    Lends approximately $30 billion in support of JP Morgan Chase to facilitate its acquisition of Bear Stearns;
*    Agrees to lend up to $85 billion to American International Group (AIG). Subsequent to FY-end 2008, the credit facility was modified and Treasury agreed to purchase $40 billion in Senior AIG preferred stock and will receive common stock warrants for 2 percent of the outstanding AIG common stock;
*    Announces Money Market Investor Funding Facility through which the Fed is authorized to buy $600 billion in CDs and commercial paper to bolster money market mutual funds, and sets up separate facilities to purchase certain AIG assets;
*    Agrees to guarantee $306 billion of Citigroup troubled assets. Pursuant to the agreement, Citigroup would cover the first $37 billion in losses, Treasury would cover the next $5 billion, and FDIC would cover up to $10 billion of additional losses. Treasury and FDIC receive Citigroup preferred stock as part of the arrangement;
*    Announces program to purchase up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities and up to $100 billion of Fannie and Freddie debt, and to lend up to $200 billion against new car, student, and small-business loans. Treasury has pledged $20 billion from TARP for this program as well;
*    Under the Supplementary Financing Program, Treasury borrowed $300 billion to increase cash balances at the Fed to support the Fed’s market stabilization efforts.

The vast majority of Fed actions and transactions will not directly impact the Government’s financial statements since the Fed is an independent entity and, while part of the Government, is not considered part of the Federal Government reporting entity. To date, the Government’s exposure is largely limited to any impact that losses from these programs may have on excess profits that the Fed is required to pass on to the Treasury’s General fund.

***

Actions by Treasury:

Under HERA authority, received preferred stock and warrants, valued at $7 billion as consideration for entering into assistance agreements – recorded as an investment.

Commits to provide up to $200 billion under a preferred stock purchase agreement to ensure that GSEs’ assets and liabilities remain in balance – records $13.8 billion as a liability in FY 2008, based upon the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s notification to the Treasury Department that a payment is due to Freddie Mac, based on Freddie Mac’s September 30, 2008 net worth status.

Fannie Mae did not require a payment in FY 2008. Purchased $3.3 billion in MBS and recorded that amount as a loan receivable in FY 2008.

Under EESA, used over $200 billion to purchase assets of qualifying financial institutions since fiscal year-end as of December 9, 2008. None of these purchases occurred during FY 2008.

Amounts expended under HERA and EESA have been and are expected to be treated as either investments or loans, as the Government may recover and possibly even earn a positive return on amounts invested as economic conditions improve.

As the first quarter of FY 2009 draws to a close, the Government is exploring a number of other recovery strategies. Actions under HERA, EESA, and other initiatives are intended to restore confidence to lenders and consumers, and provide stability to the nation’s economy.

***
[ . . . ]

Historically, the Government has incurred debt when: (1) it borrows from the public to fund budget deficits, and (2) government funds invest excess receipts in government securities.

However, in FY 2008, this relationship changed, with Treasury borrowing over $300 billion to increase cash balances at the Fed so that the Fed can assist with market stabilization efforts.

The implementation of both HERA and EESA including the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) have the potential to increase future borrowings by more than $1 trillion. Substantial borrowings in FY 2009 and beyond are expected to fund stock and asset purchases at financial institutions across the country.
At the end of FY 2008, the Government had incurred $10 trillion in debt, comprised of: debt held by (or owed to) the public (i.e., publicly held debt) and intragovernmental debt (i.e., debt the Government owes to itself).

Publicly held debt (a balance sheet liability) includes all Treasury securities (e.g., bills, notes, and bonds) held by individuals, corporations, Federal Reserve banks, foreign governments, and other entities outside the Government.

Intra-governmental debt is primarily held in the form of special nonmarketable securities by various parts of the Government. Laws establishing Government trust funds generally require excess trust fund receipts to be invested in these special securities.

Intra-governmental debt is not shown on the balance sheet because claims of one part of the Government against another are eliminated for consolidation purposes (see Financial Statement Note 11).
Gross Federal debt [ . . . ]
Congress established a dollar ceiling for Federal borrowing, which has been periodically increased over the years (most recently from $9.8 trillion to $10.6 trillion in 2008). At the end of FY 2008, the amount of debt subject to the limit was $9.96 trillion, $655.2 billion under the limit. In October 2008, in connection with the passage of EESA, the limit was raised again to $11.3 trillion.

http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008/08frusg.pdf

pg 165 (numbered 159  in report)

Research and Development
Federal investments in research and development (R&D) comprise those expenses for basic research, applied research, and development that are intended to increase or maintain national economic productive capacity or yield other future benefits.
•
Investments in basic research are for systematic studies to gain knowledge or understanding of the fundamental aspects of phenomena and of observable facts without specific applications toward processes or products in mind.
•
Investments in applied research are for systematic studies to gain knowledge or understanding necessary for determining the means by which a recognized and specific need may be met.
•
Investments in development are the systematic use of the knowledge and understanding gained from research for the production of useful materials, devices, systems, or methods, including the design and development of prototypes and processes.
With regard to basic and applied research, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had $16.6 billion (60 percent) and $11.4 billion (53 percent), of the total basic and applied research investments, respectively, in fiscal year 2008 as shown in Table 11. HHS also had similar R&D investment amounts (and percentage contributions) in each of the preceding 4 years.
Within HHS, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) conducts almost all (97 percent) of the department’s basic and applied research. The NIH Research Program includes all aspects of the medical research continuum, including basic and disease-oriented research, observational and population-based research, behavioral research, and clinical research, including research to understand both health and disease states, to move laboratory findings into medical applications, to assess new treatments or compare different treatment approaches; and health services research.
The NIH regards the expeditious transfer of the results of its medical research for further development and commercialization of products of immediate benefit to improved health as an important mandate.
With regard to development, the DOD and the NASA had $65.2 billion (82 percent) and $11.4 billion (14 percent), respectively, of total development investments in fiscal year 2008, as shown in Table 11. DOD changed its methodology for reporting yearly investments in research and development during fiscal year 2008 which affected the current and prior 4 years. Their data is based on research and development outlays (expenditures). As a result, the total amounts of investments in development (Table 11) have been restated. Development is comprised of five stages: advanced technology development, advanced component development and prototypes, system development and demonstration, management support, and operational systems development. Major outcomes of DOD development are:
•
Hardware and software components, or complete weapon systems, ready for operational and developmental testing and field use, and
•
Weapon systems finalized for complete operational and developmental testing.
NASA development programs include activities to extend our knowledge of Earth, its space environment, and the universe, and to invest in new aeronautics and advanced space transportation technologies that support the development and application of technologies critical to the economic, scientific, and technical competiveness of the United States. Some outcomes and future outcomes of this development are:
•
The Constellation Systems program to develop, demonstrate, and deploy the capabilities to transport crew and cargo for missions to the lunar surface and safely return the crew to Earth.
•
Robotic spacecraft that use electrical power for propulsion, data acquisition, and communication to accurately place themselves in orbit around the surfaces of bodies about which we may know relatively little.
•
The Fundamental Aeronautics Program conducts research to enable the design of vehicles that fly through any atmosphere at any speed. A key focus will be the development of physics-based, multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization tools to address the multiple design challenges in future aircraft.
•
The James Webb Space Telescope is a large, deployable infrared astronomical space-based observatory. The mission is a logical successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, extending beyond Hubble’s discoveries into the infrared, where the highly red shifted early universe must be observed, where cool objects like protostars and protoplanetary disks emit strongly, and where dust obscures shorter wavelengths.
•
The study of the dynamic Earth system to trace effect to cause, connect variability and forcing with response, and vastly improve national capabilities to predict climate, weather, natural hazards, and conditions in the space environment.

***

***

from Evidence-based Policy Report (UK)

This is not to say that most policy develops in such a linear way from first identifying the evidence, balancing the options and then developing and evaluating the resulting policy. As set out by the Chief Government Social Researcher, the idea of ‘evidence-inspired’ policy making might be more appropriate (Duncan, 2005). Amongst those interviewed, there was a clear distinction between the theory or ideal behind evidence-based policy and the realities of making policy in the real world.“…but that is very much an ideal, that’s very much a theory, which is sometimes overturned by events.”The reality of policy making was described as messy and unpredictable, rarely progressing in a linear fashion. Evidence was clearly just one factor which policy makers took into consideration when developing or implementing policy. Other factors and real-world events and crises all exerted an influence to a greater or lesser degree depending on the policy. Most importantly, the timing of most policies rarely allowed for a linear and methodical evaluation of the evidence. Evidence-based policy making, therefore, was not seen as something that is conducted in isolation. Although most of the policy makers were obviously uncomfortable with the idea of policy made ‘on the hoof’ in response to some pressing need to respond to an issue or on the basis of anecdote or media pressure, they acknowledged that a purely evidence-based approach was rarely possible.

www.gsr.gov.uk

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

– my comments –

I’ve been hearing on the news, even from government officials and Congress members including Barney Frank – that there is no accountability for recipients of the first TARP funds that were originally issued – nor those funds that were also used prior to that last year as emergency funds.

The fact is otherwise and can be found in the above document from the US government Accountability Office. In fact, I think I read that in the wording of the legislation originally passed on the TARP funds and in those other bailouts for “the housing bill” that Congress passed, for GSE’s, in the AIG bailout dollars and at the increased limits at the credit windows, etc.

Okay – so what the hell is this now? Are these government workers and elected members just pretending not to know this stuff or are they deciding that it is too much for them to find out how these funds have been used?

Obviously, there are the economic signs of literally a depression rather than a recession at this point and these dynamics are based on the basic definitions of an economic depression. It looks like a shallow depression that has been articulated to be shallow at this point. However, it is spreading out so far and so fast, that I would question what it will become next, having been artificially and unnaturally flattened and shallowed from what it would’ve been otherwise. My guess – a scientific wild-ass guess, at best – is that we’ve come to the “oh, hell” part of the equation.

that said, there is a serious uncontained fault in the foundation of our economy and I think it means that under the current stresses, this and other weaknesses could be amplified and cleaving long before anything could be done to stop it. Our cash / currency foundation is resting on projections that are based on faulty logic and pre-supposed factors that no longer exist. I would say that is now a serious problem because it has been a supporting structure for all US currency and asset values. That is a big fault line in the foundation.

– cricketdiane

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Evidence based analysis – Economics and Policy – a reality based approach in use currently within international community

12 Monday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, Physics of Change, Principles of Economics, Psychology, Quantum Physics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, resourcing, Right Brain Thinking Skills Set, Rocket Science, Statistical Analysis

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bailouts, banking and finance services committee, banks, bonds, commercial paper, commodities, consumer based economy, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit markets, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, deflation, econometrics, economic development, economic models, economic stimulus, Economics, Economy, employment, evidence based analysis and policy, Federal Reserve, financial institutions, financial systems, gdp, global economic crisis, Global Economy, gnp, government, Great Depression of 2008 2009, housing, housing market, inflation, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Labor, macro-economic future forecasting, mortgage backed securities, Physics of Change, Presidents Working Financial Group, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, recession, Securities and Exchange Commission, Statistical Analysis, stock markets, stocks, unemployment, unsecured credit, US Congress, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, US House of Representatives, US Senate, US Treasury, Wall Street

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

This report presents findings from an investigation into the use of evidence-based policy in practice. It is based on interviews and discussion groups with policy makers from 10 Whitehall departments and the devolved administrations of the Scottish Executive and the Welsh Assembly Government. In total, 42 policy makers, in a range of middle management and senior civil service positions, took part.
It was conducted to gauge the extent to which the use of robust, research evidence is embedded within day-to-day policy making and policy delivery, and to understand the reasons why effective use of evidence in government decision making continues to present such a challenge. It provides a snapshot of current practices within government departments.

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

Government Social Research
www.gsr.gov.uk

–

Government Social Research Unit
HM Treasury
Enquiries: gsr-web@hm-treasury.x.gsi.gov.uk
For general enquiries about HM Treasury and its work, contact:
Correspondence and Enquiry Unit
HM Treasury
1 Horse Guards Road
London
SW1A 2HQ
Tel: 020 7270 4558
Fax: 020 7270 4861
E-mail: public.enquiries@hm-treasury.gov.uk

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

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US Government Accountability Office Issues Opportunity to Fix Accounting Irregularities

11 Sunday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in ancient sea, Apples and Oranges, Benjamin Franklin, Business Methods, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, diane c phillips, Economics, Economy, Efficiency Systems 2008, Enlightenment and Reformation, Extreme Engineering, Eye of Enlightenment, Freedom, Freedom of Thought, Genius At Work, good living, got no money guide, Helping To Fix Solvable Problems, How-to, Information Systems, innovation, Integrated Thinking Processes, Intelligence, Intelligensia USA, Inventing Solutions For America, Leadership Skills, LITERACY, Logic, Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, Making It All Work Quickly, Money, Physics of Change, Principles of Economics, Reading Comprehension, real life experiences, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, resourcing, Solutions, Solving Difficult Problems in Real Life Real World Real, Solving Impossible Problems, Statistical Analysis, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, USA -1, We Come Bearing Gifts, Workable Solutions

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bailouts, banking, bonds, commodities, commodity futures, credit crunch crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, econometrics, economic bailouts, economic crisis, Economics, Economy, financial derivatives, futures, global economic crisis, investment banking, macro-economic analysis, mortgage backed securities, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, securities fraud, stock market, stocks, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, Wall Street

GAO: U.S. Government’s 2008 Financial Report
Demonstrates Significant Problems
Some Major Agencies Fail to Garner ‘Clean Opinions’;
Problems Make it More Challenging for Informed Decisions
WASHINGTON (December 15, 2008) – For the 12th year in a row, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) was prevented from expressing an opinion on the consolidated financial statements of the U.S. government—other than the Statement of Social Insurance—because of numerous material internal control weaknesses and other limitations.
“While significant progress has been made in improving financial management since the federal government began preparing consolidated financial statements 12 years ago, three major impediments have continued to prevent us from rendering an opinion on the accrual basis consolidated financial statements over this period of time,” said Gene L Dodaro, Acting Comptroller General of the United States and head of the GAO. “Those include serious financial management problems at the Department of Defense, the federal government’s inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental activity and balances between federal agencies, and the federal government’s ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements.” Dodaro also noted three additional material weaknesses related to improper payments, information security, and tax collection activities. Dodaro added that at least three major agencies did not get clean opinions – the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

http://www.gao.gov/press/financialreport20081215.pdf

The fiscal year 2008 Financial Report of the United States Government, which includes financial information from the 24 major federal departments and agencies and GAO’s audit report, is being released today by the Treasury Department. Dodaro noted that the report would not be possible without the commitment and professionalism of Inspectors General throughout the federal government who are responsible for annually auditing the financial statements of individual federal agencies. The report is also available on GAO’s web site at www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008financialreport.html
For more information, contact Chuck Young, Managing Director of GAO’s Office of Public Affairs, at (202) 512-4800.
#####
The Government Accountability Office, known as the investigative arm of Congress, exists to support Congress in meeting its constitutional responsibilities. GAO also works to improve the performance of the federal government and ensure its accountability to the American people. The agency examines the use of public funds; evaluates federal programs and policies; and provides analyses, recommendations, and other data to help Congress make informed oversight, policy, and funding decisions. GAO’s commitment to good government is reflected in its core values of accountability, integrity, and reliability.

– don’t tell me they didn’t know –

cricketdiane, 01-01-09

Now, tell me more about “evidence based economic analysis” . . .

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Handy Economic Resources Info from International Community – from original post sept 29 20087

11 Sunday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Apples and Oranges, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Creating Solutions for America, Creating Solutions That Work, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, Democracy, diane c phillips, Ecology, Economics, Economy, Freedom of Thought, Genius At Work, good living, got no money guides, got no money living, How-to, Human Rights, Information Systems, Integrated Thinking Processes, Intelligence, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, invention, inventiveness, Macro-economics future forecasting, Money, Principles of Economics, Solutions, Solving Difficult Problems in Real Life Real World Real, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US At Home - Domestic Policy, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, USA -1, We Come Bearing Gifts, Workable Solutions, Writers, Writing, XI-1

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bailouts, banking, bonds, commodities, commodity futures, credit crunch crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, economic bailouts, economic crisis, Economics, Economy, financial derivatives, futures, global economic crisis, investment banking, macro-economic analysis, mortgage backed securities, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, securities fraud, stock market, stocks, US dollar, US economic crisis, US government policy, Wall Street

About half the links I have open right now that would be nice to find tomorrow – about US economic crisis and international concerns and forecasting models

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/fbi-probes-companies-heart-crisis/
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
FBI Probes Companies at Heart of Crisis

Associated Press

WASHINGTON–The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration.

Two law enforcement officials said the FBI is looking at potential fraud by mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.74, +0.43, +32.82%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.89, +0.57, +43.18%), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH: 0.13, -0.17, -56.66%), and insurer American International Group Inc.(AIG: 3.31, -1.69, -33.80%)

A senior law enforcement official says the inquiries, still in preliminary stages, will focus on the financial institutions and the individuals that ran them.

Officials say the new inquiries brings the number of corporate lenders under investigation over the last year to 26.

***

http://www.senate.gov/

***

http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#international

http://www.unece.org/site_map.htm
http://www.unece.org/programs/programs.htm
http://www.unece.org/meetings/meetings.htm
http://www.unece.org/info_resources/info_resources.htm
http://www.unece.org/about/about.htm
http://www.unece.org/contact/contact.htm

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
STATISTICS
http://www.unece.org/stats/stats_e.htm Statistics Home http://www.unece.org/stats/activities.e.htmActivities
http://www.unece.org/stats/archive/docs.e.htm Documents Library
http://www.unece.org/stats/publ.htm Publications
http://w3.unece.org/pxweb/Dialog/ Data on-line
http://www.unece.org/stats/links.htm Links

LINKS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FOR EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA

23 April, 2008
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#national”>
http://www.unece.org/stats/links.htm#national
National Statistical Agencies of the UNECE Member Countries

  • In alphabetical order:
    A B C D E F G H I K L M N P R S T U
International Statistical Agencies

http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#international
United Nations and specialized agencies
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#EU”
European Union
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#IO”
Intergovernmental organizations
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#NO”
Non-governmental organizations
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#regions”
Other Regions
http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#other”
Other Statistical Sources

International Statisitical Agencies

United Nations and specialized agencies

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/
United Nations Statistics Division

http://www.un.org/popin/
United Nations Population Division/DESA

http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/ageing/index.html
United Nations Programme on Ageing

http://www.unhcr.org/statistics.html
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

http://www.fao.org/es/ess/
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
http://www.fao.org/faostat/
FAOSTAT
http://www.icao.org/
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/index.htm
International Labour Organization (ILO), Bureau of Statistics
http://laborsta.ilo.org/
LABORSTA database
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
http://dsbb.imf.org/
Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board

http://www.uis.unesco.org/
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
http://www.undp.org/
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/
Human Development Report

http://www.unfpa.org/
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
http://www.unido.org/
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)
http://www.unicri.it/
United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI)

http://www.who.int/whosis/en/
World Health Organization (WHO) Statistical Information System

http://www.who.dk/InformationSources/Data/20010827_1
WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO/EURO)

http://www.worldbank.org/
World Bank

http://www.wmo.ch/web/ddbs/ddbs.html
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

http://www.unece.org/stats/links_int.htm#top

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/ddis.go_home?p_language=en EUROSTAT, Statistical Office of the European Communities

http://www.ecb.int/stats/html/index.en.html
European Central Bank

Intergovernmental organizations – IO
http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_33715_1_1_1_1_1,00.html Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (Statistics Directorate)

http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
International Energy Agency <

http://www.cisstat.com/
Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States

http://www.ipu.org/
Inter-Parliamentary Union

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm
World Trade Organization (WTO)

http://www.unwto.org/statistics/index.htm
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

http://www.iom.ch/
International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Non-governmental organizations

http://www.cbs.nl/isi/
International Statistical Institute (ISI)

http://www.stat.fi/iaos/
International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS)

http://www.wri.org/wri/index.html
World Resources Institute (WRI)
http://earthtrends.wri.org/
EarthTrends

Other statistical sources

Press, private databases, user groups, etc.
http://www.ntu.edu.sg/lib/stat/statdata.htm
Statistical Data Locator
(by Nanyang Technological University)

http://www.blaiseusers.org/
International BLAISE user group
http://www.blaiseusers.org/govstat.htm
links
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/frames/stdemfr.html
University of Michigan – links to statistical resources on the Web

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/citygroup/index.htm
City groups on statistical methodologies
(by UN Statistics Division)

http://ideas.uqam.ca/EDIRC/statoff.html
Economics Departments, Institutes and Research Centres in the World
(maintained by University of Quebec)

Other regions
UN regional commissions
http://www.eclac.cl/estadisticas/default.asp?idioma=IN
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

http://www.unescap.org/stat/
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)<
http://www.unescap.org/stat/nsos.htm
http://www.escwa.org.lb/
United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)

http://www.uneca.org/
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
The designations employed and the presentation of the material in these external web sites do no imply the expression of any opinion whatsover on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

mailto:support.stat@unece.org
support.stat@unece.org

© United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

***
http://www.icj-cij.org/homepage/index.php?p1=0
International Court of Justice
***
http://www.icc-cpi.int/home.html&l=en
International Criminal Court
***

http://untreaty.un.org/ola/FR/Default.aspx
Bureau Des Affaires Juridiques (OLA)
Nations Unies

***

http://isi.cbs.nl/other_gov.htm
Directory of Official Statistical Agencies – Other Organizations
***
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1153,47169267,1153_47181498&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Eurostat – Your key to European statistics

***
http://www.oecd.org/document/59/0,3343,en_2649_201185_41371835_1_1_1_1,00.html
Home: OECD > Statement by the Secretary-General of the OECD, Mr. Angel Gurría, on the Financial Crisis and its Aftermath
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Home: Statistics Portal > Publications & Documents
http://www.oecd.org/findDocument/0,3354,en_2825_293564_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
Publications
http://www.oecd.org/statsportal/0,3352,en_2825_293564_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
Statistics Portal
http://www.icc-cpi.int/organs/otp.html&l=en
Office of the Prosecutor
International Criminal Court

***
http://ca.youtube.com/user/TheMouthPeace
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=H5tZc8oH–o
very well explained here – and apparently encouraging a vote for McCain at the end – but an excellent comprehensive overview of the situation in American finance.

***
http://isi.cbs.nl/iaos/
International Association for Official Statistics
ISI Sections

***

http://www.isbis.org/links.html
International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics
Links page

***
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121373267/abstract
Special Issue Paper
On estimating the conditional expected shortfall
Franco Peracchi 1 2 *, Andrei V. Tanase 1
1Tor Vergata University, Rome, Italy
2EIEF, Rome, Italy
email: Franco Peracchi (franco.peracchi@uniroma2.it)

*Correspondence to Franco Peracchi, Faculty of Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, via Columbia 2, 00133 Rome, Italy

Keywords
risk measures • quantile regression • logistic regression

Abstract
Unlike the value at risk, the expected shortfall is a coherent measure of risk. In this paper, we discuss estimation of the expected shortfall of a random variable Yt with special reference to the case when auxiliary information is available in the form of a set of predictors Xt. We consider three classes of estimators of the conditional expected shortfall of Yt given Xt: a class of fully non-parametric estimators and two classes of analog estimators based, respectively, on the empirical conditional quantile function and the empirical conditional distribution function. We study their sampling properties by means of a set of Monte Carlo experiments and analyze their performance in an empirical application to financial data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Received: 30 April 2008; Revised: 30 April 2008; Accepted: 25 June 2008

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

See Also:

* Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis

Volume 24 Issue 5, Pages 471 – 493

Special Issue: Special issue on statistical methods in performance analysis

Published Online: 8 Aug 2008

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
View all previous titles for this journal

***
http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.bj/1219669629

Probability measures, Lévy measures and analyticity in time

Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen and Friedrich Hubalek

Source: Bernoulli Volume 14, Number 3 (2008), 764-790.
Abstract

We investigate the relation of the semigroup probability density of an infinite activity Lévy process to the corresponding Lévy density. For subordinators, we provide three methods to compute the former from the latter. The first method is based on approximating compound Poisson distributions, the second method uses convolution integrals of the upper tail integral of the Lévy measure and the third method uses the analytic continuation of the Lévy density to a complex cone and contour integration. As a by-product, we investigate the smoothness of the semigroup density in time. Several concrete examples illustrate the three methods and our results.
Keywords: cancellation of singularities; exponential formula; generalised gamma convolutions; subordinators

***
http://www.bis.org/cbhub/indexm17.htm#monetary
Central Bank Research Hub Index – M: monetari-mornings

http://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/dkp/2006/200621dkp.pdf
Monetary and fiscal policy interactions –
http://www.bundesbank.de/download/volkswirtschaft/dkp/2006/200621dkp.pdf

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and Non-Ricardian consumers, 2006
by Campbell Leith, and Leopold von Thadden

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When mortgages are sold – the property becomes the ownership of the foreign bank or government that has bought it

11 Sunday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in America - USA, Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Creating Solutions for America, Creating Solutions That Work, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, Democracy, diane c phillips, Economics, Economy, Freedom, Freedom of Thought, Genius At Work, Integrated Thinking Processes, Intelligence, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Macro-economics future forecasting, Money, Principles of Economics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, Rocket Science, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US At Home - Domestic Policy, US Bill of Rights, US Constitution, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, XI-1

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So, let’s see what we’ve got here . . .

Every piece of property in America has been sold three times over –

once when the seller received their price from the buyer’s mortgage,

secondly, when the bank or finance company charged 8 times the price of the property for the mortgage on it,

and, third, when that mortgage was sold to a secondary market packaged with other derivatives and mortgage-backed securities.

***

So now, every piece of property in the United States is no longer owned by anyone in our citizenry who would occupy and conduct their lives from it. That means, we don’t own America anymore.

***

Every property is now owned by banks around the world, foreign investment groups and other businesses rather than by anything or anyone in the US. Even the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage products are sold off into the secondary markets so they can make more mortgages. Therefore even those properties are literally under the ownership of businesses elsewhere.

As much as some American banks and companies do own groups of these mortgage-backed securities, they are not people in respect to this property ownership – not homeowners – not those who would be members of the community – not church goers – not raising their families in those homes – and have no vested interest in the improvement and upkeep of the homes.

***

There are several serious flaws in this system and ideology of mortgage / home ownership / commercial property / real estate and property ownership. The first of which is that those holding the mortgages actually own the properties, not those people that are paying on the mortgages.

The more serious flaw, however, is that now none of the property in the US is owned by the US nor by its citizens. How can people be paying for something that they will never, never, never own? Why would they pay for these homes and properties when some foreign banking or investment group is actually being paid to pay off their debt in the property and those Americans paying the interest and principle will never own it?

***

Another reason this system is flawed, has to do with the pragmatic logistics of owning thirty thousand properties in the US when these have defaulted on their mortgages and the company of ownership exists elsewhere in the world. Not only did these companies, banks, hedge funds and investors never have a plan for this – they also have no real intention of using these properties as homes or businesses.

The properties are no more than a number on a page of assets somewhere – the real properties behind them mean nothing in this tally while the only real use the properties do have is no longer viable and no longer utilized. At the same time, those who would have use of the physical real properties among the citizens and businesses in the US have no genuine access to ownership of them. What purpose then do they serve?

When there exists no part and place for the citizens of a country to have real ownership in property and businesses of their country – there also ceases to exist any vested interest in support of the interests of the country and its communities, its governments, its existing businesses, its ideologies, its security, its assets, its improvements, its survival.

***

Now, the bankers, government officials, chamber of commerce leadership, lobbyists, Wall Street, and various other leaders of the United States appear to be trying to find a way to keep the same old game going. So, the real question is not what will restore the credit markets.

The real question is – how we will take what we have and go to something new that evolves from what it has been?

So we take these bankers out of the game for the very treasonous and criminal harms done to the United States and the World? Do we restore ownership of all mortgages, credit, properties, assets and US business interests of the US to the US?

Do we let those companies be destroyed that are holding to prices that are inflated for purposes of making money on the credit required for any purchases of their products, services or properties, including automakers and sellers of real estate? Do we stop subsidizing lobbyists, banks, financiers and foreign interests, profit-driven oil companies and pharmaceuticals?

***

How much of the problems would be solved if we make it the law that if a bank or finance company originates a mortgage, it must hold that mortgage for at least two-thirds of the life of the mortgage or for its entire term?

How much more of the economic problems in the US and around the World would be solved almost immediately by removing all credit derivatives from use – allowing no new ones to be made and by forcing all existing ones to be resolved before the end of 2009? What if that includes all credit derivatives, credit default swaps, mortgage-backed securities, bonds and commercial paper of any kind – all of which would be resolved before the end of 2009 and then never allowed again?

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