Econometrica - International Econometrics Society and Contacts - US economic crisis - Global economic crisis - 2008
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Taxes in the US will take over 75% of every American’s income to pay for this nonsense in 2009 and beyond - US and global economic crisis - 2008
Do people understand that they will be paying 75% of their income in taxes after this year?
Do people understand that between all the tax increases from income tax, state taxes, gasoline taxes, excise taxes, capital gains taxes, federal taxes, sales taxes, ad valorem taxes, property taxes and everything else, they will be paying out 75% of any and all types of income to our government?
That isn’t a bill for our children and grandchildren - We are the grandchildren and children who were left with it from the last thirty years of nonsense.
On top of that, the news and government leaders believe that 6% in our unemployment numbers, when it only relates a small percentage of the actual unemployment in the US. Without employment, there are not going to be consumers. And, without consumers - the top 2% of the population can’t support the majority of businesses, enterprises and consumer-goods.
What did they think would happen when the stones from the base of their “pyramid” were crushed?
And would somebody please tell the ideots of the Obama bunch that there already is an agency whereby bridges are built, dams are created and other infrastructure projects - its called the corps of engineers and the department of transportation.
Leave it to the Democrats to solve a problem by creating another agency that needs funding without getting a damn thing done to solve anything.
Why didn’t the Democratic party and acorn and the other jerks of socialist doctrine who wanted affordable housing to be available to the poor - simply make employment opportunities available to them which would have increased their standard of living and given accessibility to home ownership in a sustainable way?
Or was that not who they wanted to prosper?
Why do the Democrats not hold the Democrats responsible that established this crisis by their actions?
Written by Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, 10-12-08, USA
US Congress - US economic crisis fix - A letter sent to leadership in April 2008
A Letter To Our US Congress and Government Leaders - Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips - 2008
When you decided to accept a position in our Congress, I believe that you went there as a person of conscience to accomplish some things. How about doing it now that you are there.
These things desperately need solutions now - before the Presidential election -
1. The creation of jobs - if not through the free-trade with the rest of the world, then how? Do something that works.
2. Food and especially petroleum and heating oil prices must come down or people will die as a result or be in bad health unable to help themselves, their children, their community.
3. Commodities futures speculation needs to change - it is a gamblers’ game that is destroying world markets and creating unnatural gluts of resources that are unaffordable by the end-user / consumer.
4. The disparity between the life of ease, comfort and security that every Congressional member, aide and staff member knows compared to the reality most Americans are facing and living must be changed. If you can’t see what is wrong - how can you fight with knowledge and conviction to change it?
5. Not only do world markets need to be opened up to our large and small businesses without economic penalties to do business there, but also passport costs, visas and other paper work necessary for US citizens to leave this country and interact elsewhere need to be easy to acquire and less than $10.00 (ten dollars) to get.
6. Education for all - before our colleges and universities close their doors, lay off their academic staffs and while our adult population could still use these academics to educate us more fully and currently, we need accessibility for each and every member of the US in every age group to these educational resources. Long before businesses can compete across international markets, we need our adult population retrained and added training to compete for jobs in the global marketplace.
7. Stop the sovereignty of states as an ideology. Without the “United” in USA - we have no foundation as a nation. It is intended to be an equality of voices balanced by your votes for each of us as you legislate as a federal institution of governance for us. States rights cannot supersede the federal government and cannot be allowed to continue repressing the rights of individual citizens to serve the interests of those states as monarchies.
8. There is a current proliferation of nuclear weapons and weapons arsenal capabilities that are now accessible to regions being destabilized by food prices and fuel prices that are making what are adequate resources into commodities that are beyond the reach of the people intended to be served by them. This is breeding hate, violence, desperation and rioting in areas that are simply not a long reach from arming themselves with intensely effective large decimation weapons, not only nuclear but others types, as well.
In a short time, long before the elections in the U.S. and before you would normally get around to doing anything - this will be a disaster. In some areas and arenas there already is a disaster of historic proportions and magnitudes of critical mass are unfolding now. Anyone that says every thing is essentially fine and this is just a little “bubble” in the markets - is lying intentionally at this point - considering the facts are obvious, visible to all and confirmed.
Unfortunately, your actions & decisions on a great many fronts have directly and indirectly caused this. Your inactions and stalling on a number of key areas have also caused this. You need to fix it before some of those nations facing starvation - including ours - blow away everything we’ve all worked so hard to establish. This economy and Wall Street and its bankers, its financiers, the corporations it represents do not stand in isolation - nor does the United States of America’s Congress and each individual member representing it.
We are sitting on one, very small, round, floating dead rock called Earth in the middle of this moment in history and in the midst of infinity - uselessly you fight the realistic in fact - we are existing in an infinity so vast we are unable to even fully consider it. There is a sad fact that exists as a truth - we have no other place to live in the entire universe and no way to get there.
It will create greater problems to do nothing or to stall for political reasons until after the election. Stonewalling the progress of things that might help change the situation for the better or make it most likely to accommodate the needed changes is also not being done in isolation. History will record what you do and what you do not do during this time, in many internationally recognized interpretations of those results. Why you did it that way at the time, isn’t going to make one bit of difference, as I’ve discovered from personal experience and educated wisdom.
From where I stand, it looks like many in Congress are forestalling, stonewalling, hindering, slowing, distracting, falsely interpreting with intention, disseminating false and distorted information with intention, unethically barring or obstructing, and attaching riders to bills and legislation that are in no way appropriate to it and doing things to strategically bait and switch.
As an example, Congress pretending to legislate concerning executive salaries and compensation packages is wasting valuable and precious time, efforts and resources on an area that is beyond the bounds of anything useful that Congress can do. It is not even in the scope of tangible areas where legislation can mean anything whatsoever. Those wasting our time and resources in this way for any reason need to be censured to stop its aggravation and unnecessary use of resources.
This use of our national resources including time, efforts, knowledge and audience with our Congressional leaders, staff members, aides, and everything around them in the nation including press resources, administrative resources in our government, academic resources in our nation among other things simply to serve the political gain of these individuals at the expense of us all must stop. It is no longer “business as usual.” The situation has changed and time is critical now.
Time is not on our side any longer in any area of concern. When you have served the influences and reality that is immediately evident around you up until now and done so to secure your own advantages, we all know it and have known it - and so has the World community. For each of those choices, you will be accountable sooner or later, that is a fact by nature of the responsibility inherent in the position of power and influence you accepted and hold.
Now, right now, we need you to do what you went there (to Washington) to do. Stop playing games of politics and “business as usual” tactics of power. Get done whatever it is that you as a person of conscience intended to do and get it done right now - as quickly and efficiently as it could never be done before.
I am one of many citizens that does know the difference you can make. While I and others will serve you because you are the members of our seated US Congress and will serve the members of the US Executive Branch with President George Bush at the helm because these are the standing President and executive officers of our country, know this - to play political games with your position is costing all of us dearly in precious time, resources, actions and wise decisions you could make.
Your position and your use of it is costing all of us - each and every one of us - here in the United States and around the World in precious time, resources and decision-making that we must use wisely right now. And, that we must apply and implement right now.
It is in your power and your abilities to do and to accomplish for us all. You are positioned to do so. I’m asking that you do whatever it is that your conscience would guide you to do about these matters, do it intelligently and do so now.
Written by Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips, 2008
“Creating the Tangible from the Impossible every day.”
Cricket House Studios - USAX1 - USA1 - 04/21/08 - USA
US economic crisis - credit crunch default crisis and 3-dimensional economic modeling from science - GDP numbers are faulty
GDP numbers are faulty. They were never intended to nor accounted for a credit based application. Their integrity is not valid to use for anything.
There is no factorization nor accommodation for the “propped up” unrealistic value of credit underlying its foundations.
Any model using the GDP or ADP is going to also be faulty.
In order to get an accurate representation that can depict the current situation and aid in evaluating various possibilities of corrections that can be made or influences that can be brought to bear on it, the numbers available around the world about element normally used to tally the GDP would need to be input directly.
This means without utilizing the accepted GDP or ADP in any way for the models.
The last post I made, includes a dimensional flux model that can accurately depict the complexity and current dynamics of the US economy - macro economy and global economy. This can be used to understand what pull or tug, here or there, would cause and what would be impacted in real time and projections.
This macro-economic modeling process and equations are found here and through its creators:
http://topics.scirus.com/The_Macroeconomic_Graphical_Sensor_System_MGS_System.html
Written by Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips, 10-10-08, USA
This 3-Dimensional Macro-economic model can forecast current US economic and global crisis 2008 - Can show how inputs will affect markets including credit default swaps and bailouts - US economic crisis
Last updated: 27 June 2008
| Category: | Economics, Econometrics and Finance > Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) |
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Dr Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada |
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This research paper is interested to propose an alternative Multi-Dimensional (MD) graphical computational system to observe or simulate different macroeconomic scenarios simultaneously in real-time or live. It is called “The Macroeconomic Graphical Sensor System (MGS-System)”. Therefore, the construction of this Multi-Dimensional graphical computational system is based on the application of Econographicology (Ruiz, 2007) and Database analysis.
2. INTRODUCTION
The basic idea to build the MGS-System is to show a set of Multi-Dimensional graphs, at the same time, these Multi-Dimensional graphs are moving constantly in real-time or live. If some of these Multi-Dimensional graphs show an erratic behavior, then the MGS-System start to alert immediately about possible failure(s) in some or all macroeconomic scenarios in the same graphical space. The failure(s) location depends on the Multi-Dimensional graph position into its physical space coordinate system respectively. If the MGS-System find some or many failure(s) in the Multi-Dimensional graph, then the MGS-System start to take action(s) to search possible solutions (or economic policies) to solve some or many failure(s) simultaneously. These solutions (or economic policies) are originated from a large number of database. To find the possible solutions (or economic policies) to solve some or many failure(s), it is depend on the serial of parameters that we are established in each axis on the Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system respectively.Hence, the selection of possible solution(s) (or economic policies) depend on the Multi-dimensional graph position. The final solution(s) is selected according to less risk or less vulnerable economic impact among a large number of possible solutions. Moreover, this research paper has three specific objectives follow by:
The first specific objective in this research paper is the application of a basic form of Database analysis based on the application of a default random process. The default random process will choose the best solution(s) (or economic policy) into a large Database from successful economic models, theoretical frameworks and econometric models and simulations applied on economics. It is based on the parameters are established into each axis in the Multi-Dimensional physical space coordinate system.
The second specific objective is the application of Econographicology, it is offer a new types of graphs under the application of physical spaces are presented: Pyramid Physical Space, Diamond Physical Space, Multi-Dimensional Physical Space, Infinity Physical Space, and Multi-Pictorial Physical Space (Ruiz, 2008). These graphs and Physical Spaces are constructed based on the traditional 3-Dimensional space concept, but they represent 4-D, 5-D, 8-D, 9-D and Infinity-Dimension. The multiple-dimensional representations are to facilitate easy understanding of economic phenomena from a general view.
Finally, this research will to show a flow chat to explain the construction and implementation of the Macroeconomic Graphical Sensor System (MGS-System). The idea to build the MGS-System is to offer an alternative technical tool to policy makers, academics, international institutions to obtain a serial of possible solutions to solve economic problems.
3. THE MGS-SYSTEM THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
- Ruiz Estrada, M. 2007. “Econographicology”, International Journal of Economic Research ( IJER), Serial Publications, Vol. 4, No.1, pp. 93-104. (Link->)
- Ruiz Estrada, M. 2008. “Econographicology”, E-Monograph, University of Malaya ( UM), Faculty of Economics and Administration (FEA). Layout by CyDesign Co. pp. 1-240. (Link->)
America aristocracy, socialism, communism and wealth of arrogance leading us into hell
A Right or a Privilege?
“The person who states this always assumes themselves on the advantage side of this equation.”
Since the first time I heard this argument used for something in the United States, I knew it was wrong. Its premise is wrong and its basis is anti-American, anti-Constitutional and against everything the United States has as its basis.
Privilege is a concept of social order, caste systems and aristocracy. It is occasionally social elitism and academic or intellectual elitist by use historically. It is also found in numerous writings of socialism and Marxist doctrines. It is the antithesis of America’s premise.
Rights as defined in this argument, “is it a right or a privilege” is also Marxist, Taoist, Communist and socialism in its truest sense. Its concept of “right” of the people is corrupted by the tyranny of those who would judge it, offer it, control it, manage it and insure it done.
In a land of freedom and individual rights as the US is founded - it is both right and privilege, yet neither one is the basis by which we guide our choices, policies, laws, decisions and tenets.
Our founding principles are those of freedom, equality of rights and opportunities, guaranteed individual rights, capitalism, democracy and government by consent rather than by tyranny and rule.
The assurance of collective rights of the people managed and insured by a small corps of government who are all powerful does not assure the rights of the individual nor the equality of opportunities to all. Nor does it promote liberty, equality of rights and opportunities nor government by the people, of the people and for the people which represents the people of the United States of America.
Whether that is made because of aristocracy and elitism or through socialism and communism, both are wrong - yielding no more than abuses of power, corruption, oppression, poverty, restrictive prosperity for only a few, and eventually, deteriorating societies over any appreciable time.
For instance, the freedom to drive a vehicle in our modern world should be understood as neither right nor privilege but as necessity. Education, as well, is neither right nor one of privilege but of necessity, and to a greater advantage and benefit of us all and of our nation. Home ownership is not naturally a basis of status but rather of a place to live and a safe harbor from which individuals and families can operate and conduct their lives, participate in their communities and assure their own well-being. When the prices of housing and properties, of basic necessities for living are not in the same table of reference with wages and ways of earning a sustainable living, a destruction of the society will occur by the nature of its injustice and failure.
Opportunities to conduct business and opportunities for employment are necessities of all and are guaranteed by our Constitution and founding principles to be available equally to any that will work for them. Where is the place in America to exclude those not of privileged classes in our tenets? These are not collective rights nor only assured to those privileged enough to access them. These are individual rights to opportunity equally shared by all American citizens regardless of status, religion, race, nationality, gender, age, or “wholeness” by some prescribed measure.
Whenever I hear the use of this argument by anyone, “is it a right or a privilege,” I am outraged. It is the very tenet of socialism and communist doctrine that came from academic elitists which began in aristocracy and oppression that we have fought across the world to end. It undermines the very foundations of America.
We have come to a point in the world and in the United States where those with privilege by access to opportunity and wealth have used their financial gain to insure their greater voice in matters affecting us all. And, where our individual rights have been compromised by a few in the name of our “collective rights” with both aristocracy and socialists using the same argument for their abuses of power and position. Both are wrong and have contributed to decimating the foundations of our society in their struggles for power and by their abuses of it.
The aristocratic class has insured our demise by financially excluding most Americans from the process of education, of government, of politics, of the acquisition of homes and reasonable employment, and of business, business ownership, entrepreneurial enterprise and prosperity. The aristocracy in America have denied access to freedom, rights and opportunities of the greatest number of Americans living under the oppression of despicable power-mongering, money-greedy twisted world views than any dictatorship in history. They have decimated the living standard, level of education and prosperity of every individual American and of our nation.
The socialists and liberals through collectivism have insured our demise through shoddy workmanship in American products and services, business deprecation, depravity, greed for power, reduced incentives, increase of abject poverty, exclusion of certain rights, such as driving, education, individual freedoms and economic inclusion to many, through segregation of economic disadvantaged, and by forcing unethical choices on political officials and those in authority. They have single-handedly destroyed the opportunities for all but a very few which sit comfortable in their assured freedoms of elitist intellectualism and positions of power within the government of the United States of America. They deny every foundation that applies to the true freedoms and guarantee of individual rights honored by our Constitution.
Both aristocrats and socialists suffer in many ways from the abuse of power syndrome which is indicated by the adage, “absolute power corrupts absolutely,” and both have decimated our country’s opportunity to survive and to compete in a larger world today and in the future. There is no good life, good living or great America in their choices for us all to endure.
The important questions are these:
1. What gives us competitive advantage now and in the future as individuals and as a nation?
2. What things open greater opportunity and advantage to every American?
3. What needs to be done to make wealth, education, opportunity and quality of life equally and easily available to all, for every individual that chooses to pursue it?
4. What continues to foster, protect, nourish and enhance our freedoms and individual rights and liberties along with our prosperity as a nation and as individuals?
5. What insures our sustenance and growth as a nation while protecting the tenets of our founding principles and foundation ideologies?
Without the premise of those ideologies, we are not America nor a land of the free, home of the brave. Nor are we fighting across the world in support of a greater cause. Without aristocracy and without socialists, our economy and our society will thrive. But it will not thrive without freedom, equality, democracy, capitalism, free market economy, representative government, and equal opportunities to education, prosperity and liberty.
By unnaturally manipulating our economy, prices of housing and property, opportunities to employment and enterprise, opportunities to higher education by price and financing, access to quality and quantity of food and other necessary goods, and by excluding individuals from their Constitutionally guaranteed rights for any number of reasons, the United States has lost its place and lost its ways that insured its continued existence and power. It is now a third world economy and a second world power with no real innovation nor threshold of invention compared to the world market stage.
Our country has devolved into a place of police brutality, pervasive intolerance, unjustified cruelty, rampant crime and denial of basic human rights on a regular basis while the greatest criminals of all time sit in our government and in the protected aristocracy of business leadership. Our government on every level is ineffective at best, expensive on average and abusive all too commonly.
At ground level, individual Americans are denied the rights to feel angry, annoyed or agitated by events and situations in their lives, nor are they allowed to feel sad, grieved, outraged, embarrassed, humiliated nor indignant about things happening in their lives and in our country. Our government locally is given the rights to come into their homes without cause to take them into locked confinement without rights, take their children and in many cases, to take their property and destroy their belongings for any reason whatsoever, including eminent domain and the government’s desire to use the property for something else.
The United States of America resembles nothing of the freedoms and assurances of rights given to individuals by the Constitution with over twenty percent of our population at any given time incarcerated in prisons and well over ten percent living in locked institutions of “mental health” and behavior modification camps and programs in the name of “mental health,” in the use of this for the business health of pharmaceutical companies and as the destruction of dissident populations. According to European standards, over twenty-five percent of our nation lives in poverty with limited access to the abundance they see around them and because of the caste system existing in our nation today, they will never have access to wealth and abundance in their lifetimes no matter what they do.
The most trite and trivial application of the incredible number of petty and unreasonable laws are applied to most of the population across the United States on a day-to-day basis while those in positions of authority, power, politics, financial power and influence adhere to no laws whatsoever nor are held accountable to them in any way. We live in a police state at the hands of both Democrats and Republicans and their abuses of power.
When the Chinese authorities during the Olympics stopped a journalist from reporting an undesirable story, it was obvious that we were seeing China operate and not America, when the police didn’t beat the living daylights out of the reporter before tazing him handcuffed on the ground and hauling him away to be locked away for several years as they do every day across America.
When the woman in a New York mental hospital intake died waiting to be locked away and put on psychiatric drugs involuntarily this year, it wasn’t an isolated incident and neither was her being placed there an appropriate help to her situation. She had worked for quite awhile before losing her job and then losing her place to live. When she asked to be helped by the minister that she had worked alongside, that knew her - the law was called because she was “agitated” having found herself homeless after working hard and doing the right things. That is communism in America at work and is so common that people find it acceptable.
There are homeless and those living in abject poverty that will always be excluded from “the game” that America has become at the hands of the powerful and financially status-oriented. Their opportunities are not only denied but basic human rights available to all living beings are also denied. That is not a mental health condition but rather one of extreme oppression, aristocracy and exclusion from participation. This is America as it has been re-created in the image and view of America’s leadership, both by the intellectual elite and political dictatorship at the helm in the United States today. That is the twisted view of the world that needs correcting with some serious mental health applications in the realm of our leadership.
We have an entire country filled with houses that no one can afford to own where years and years of equity and efforts were wiped out within a few short weeks to suit the greed of Wall Street and our politicians in the name of their business friends. The money that was created for them was assured at the expense of every homeowner and American citizen, at the hands of every employee that will ever work in America and over the needs of any human being living in the United States today and in the future.
Our President demands that we “unleash the keys of America’s entrepreneurial spirit,” while socialism and communism are the tenets he and his Washington friends use to bind us all into oppression and insolvency. His Congressional friends and business buddies must need some new ideas and innovations to steal since they’ve found themselves at a disadvantage in the world using their own ideas. These “leaders” have managed to exclude everyone else that might think differently about things than they do such that they would have new ideas and innovations and when they have these ideas available, they dishonor them by stealing from their inventors.
This is a nation of abhorrence and continued wealth assured to only a few while the rest live in destitution and lack of opportunities in any measure. And, where the lowest disadvantaged third of our country is subjected to every horror of socialism, communism, oppression and abuse of power, our leadership fails to do even one small thing for themselves by their own hands. Their food is cooked for them, their cars driven for them, their accounting administered for them, their yards landscaped and kept up for them, their hair cut for them, their houses cleaned for them, and their asses wiped for them, because it is beneath them to do it.
Personally, I would not have wanted to put my name on that $700 billion dollar Wall Street banking and business bailout bill while ignoring the will of the American people by doing it, especially knowing that somewhere in America, I would have to sleep at night, my food would be cooked by someone besides me, and that I would want to eat at a restaurant or go on vacation somewhere in the world where others would be serving me. Not in this lifetime or the next, would I rest easy after ignoring the will of the people that I was hired to represent and after genuinely screwing them.
There is nowhere in America to hide from these facts at a point. It will not be long before those impoverished by politics and exclusion will find the rich where they sleep. It is easily found throughout history, even in the history of our own country when English rule threatened the survival of a foundling nation and its interests. There is no protection from the reality our current corrupt leaders of government and business have created for all of us and its results.
There are no sales when a company has abused the privilege of its position and power in the marketplace because it depends upon the great “unwashed masses” for its existence and continued profitability. There are no positions of power in the United States when finally tolerance for their abuse stops and apathy gives way to action. We are the governed by consent of the governed and sooner or later - there is no where to hide from that real fact.
Consequently - here is the answer to the question, “is it a right or is it a privilege.” It is both my privilege and my right as an American citizen and as a human being to stand equal to any and all that would choose to judge by that question. It is my right and my privilege by virtue of waking up alive today, to be of equal value to our nation and our national interests as are any others alive this day. And, it is my right and my privilege to be more valuable than any other category of objects, whether money, property, prestige or thing, greed, power, or status.
Corporate America does not exist nor thrive without us. Intellectual elitists, socialists and communists in the name of assured collective rights cannot sleep well without our apathy. And, the aristocracy and dictatorship of the US government does not survive separate from and exclusive to our consent of power. Republicans and Democrats have abused the power and authority given to them and done so at our expense. None of them are worthy of the breath God gave them nor fit to lead anything nor anybody at any time for any reason. They’ve proven it.
And, despite brutality by police, abuse by government systems intended to “help” which did no more than destroy every basic human right, civil right and freedom that I was guaranteed by America and her Constitution, and despite authorities, socialists and aristocrats of America excluding my participation in the wealth and prosperity of capitalism - it is my right and my privilege to push that boot off my back and off the backs of every American citizen living today to restore America to her founding tenets of freedom and protections of our inalienable rights.
Written by Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips, 10-09-08, USA
US economic and credit crisis - global economic crisis - IMF analysis - excerpts and link - will likely be used for decisions by G7 - and other econ summits
Against this backdrop, Chapter 1 first outlines the key risks that have materialized since the April
2008 GFSR. Second, it examines the depth of the default cycle and potential losses. The third and
fourth sections evaluate the challenges posed by the deleveraging of the financial system in mature
economies and the broader systemic implications. The fifth section assesses the vulnerability of
emerging markets to global stress. Finally, the last section considers near-term policy priorities aimed
at rebuilding confidence and improving the
functioning of global markets, along with medium-
term policies to strengthen the international
financial architecture and reduce systemic
risks.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2008/02/pdf/chap1.pdf
Also -
The global financial system has undergone a period of unprecedented turmoil. Market confidence
dwindled and has remained fragile, leading to the collapse or near-collapse of large,
and in some cases systemically important, financial institutions, and calling forth public intervention
in the financial system on a scale not seen for decades. The financial system has
been severely weakened by mounting losses on impaired and illiquid assets, uncertainty regarding
the availability and cost of funding, and further deterioration of loan portfolios as global economic
growth slows. Finding a purely private sector resolution of financial market strains has become
increasingly difficult, while case-by-case intervention by authorities has not alleviated market concerns.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2008/02/pdf/chap1.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2008/02/index.htm
(This page has the entire document listed by chapter and coverage - excerpts are from Chapter 1 )
- These are excerpts from current IMF team analysis that will likely be used for decision and policy - making going forward. Great charts, good info, perspective fairly concise and comprehensive as overview of current situation - for US and global economies.
(My note - cricket diane)
Data Animations for the current Economic Crisis - US and Global - from IMF - current situation - easy to understand
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/messages/weo0802/message7.swf
World Economic Outlook - Data Animations - Current
Very easily understood - and applicable - This is the best -
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Facts about today’s efforts by the IMF - G7 - US Treasury - Federal Reserve - Central Banks - US government for Economic crisis
On March 16, 2008, JPMorgan Chase announced its intention to acquire Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns Inc. The proposed purchase is controversial due to the unprecedented involvement of Bernanke’s Federal Reserve System. JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay 236 million dollars, but shortly after the deal was announced, the Federal Reserve System confirmed that in a complex package of debt securitization agreements, they were underwriting the deal for around 30 billion dollars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
• Episodes of financial turmoil characterized
by banking distress are more often associated
with severe and protracted downturns than
episodes of stress centered mainly in securities
or foreign exchange markets.
• The likelihood that financial stress will be
followed by a downturn appears to be associated
with the extent to which house prices
and aggregate credit rise in the period before
the financial stress. Moreover, greater reliance
on external financing by households and
nonfinancial firms is associated with sharper
downturns in the aftermath of financial stress.
• Countries with more-arm’s-length financial
systems appear to be vulnerable to sharper
contractions in economic activity in the wake
of banking stress, because leverage in the
banking system appears to be more procyclical
in countries characterized by greater
financial innovation.
• The importance of core financial intermediaries
in transmitting financial shocks to the
real economy suggests that policies that help
restore the capital base of these institutions
within a strong framework of financial stability
can help alleviate downturns.
• The patterns of asset prices and aggregate
credit in the United States during the current
episode of financial stress appear similar to
those of previous episodes that were followed
by recessions. In particular, changes in
the pattern of household net borrowing—a
measure of reliance on external financing—
closely track the trajectory of past recessions.
Nonfinancial firms entered the turmoil from
a relatively strong position. Combined with
the large losses sustained by core banking
institutions, these factors suggest that the
United States continues to face considerable
recession risks, even though real interest rates
are low by the standards of financial-stressdriven
recessions. In the euro area, households’
relatively strong balance sheets offer
some protection against a sharp downturn,
despite the sizable increases of asset prices
and credit ratios preceding the financial
turmoil.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/c4.pdf
***
Six months ago, G7 leaders pledged to implement a series of recommendations to try to right the financial system, such as encouraging banks to disclose losses and raise new capital, but the crisis has worsened considerably since then and the response needs to change, too.
By Emily Kaiser
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World finance leaders who improvised their way through the first year of the credit crisis may finally be ready to come up with a comprehensive plan to clean up the mess, the IMF’s chief economist said on Wednesday.
Wed Oct 8, 2008 12:41pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKTRE4978JH20081008?virtualBrandChannel=10341
***
World Economic and Financial Surveys
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries
October 2008
©2008 International Monetary Fund
World Economic Outlook Database
October 2008
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/index.htm
5.3 Real GDP Growth and Fiscal Impulse by Composition: All Economies
| Chart | Data | 1.1 | Global Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.2 | Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
| Chart | Data | 1.3 | Global Inflation |
| Chart | Data | 3.10 | Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies |
| List of Tables Part A | |||
| Output (Tables A1–A4) | |||
| Inflation (Tables A5–A7) | |||
| Financial Policies (Table A8) | |||
| Foreign Trade (Table A9) | |||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) | |||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13– A15) |
|||
| Flow of Funds (Table A16) | |||
| Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) | |||
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and PoliciesChapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
Chapter 3. Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation
Chapter 4. Financial Stress and Economic Downturns
Chapter 5. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool
Chapter 6. Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies
Executive Summary
Businesses that need credit to keep covering overhead - where is the money from their sales? US economic crisis -
When the executive of Lehman Brothers, Dick Fuld was testifying to Congress, there was a point that he was explaining why $10 billion dollars was spent at the end of the year buying back stock. His explanation was that the compensation contract with employees had a stock component and that they were buying up their Lehman stock such that these would be available for employees’ packages.
Now, at what point did it become appropriate to sell stocks that belonged to their employees in the first place? It makes it look like the company was selling these stocks for cash each year, floating them in the market and then at the end of each year, buying them back to “balance the books,” so to speak. When it became obvious that there was a liquidity problem, this method of maneuvering these stocks (that they didn’t actually own since they belonged to employees,) was part of what contributed to their downfall. But why were they doing it in the first place?
Second thing I’ve noticed lately, is that politicians, leaders, Senators and business “experts” are suggesting that payrolls and orders for products to sell, among other things can’t be made without credit to cover them. How is it possible that solvent, profitable businesses are covering the basic costs of doing business, using credit? They’ve had costs covered through sales and profits over many years. They have stocks out in the marketplace. They continue to make money as their sales in the consumer markets had increased over past years. So, what does this mean? Why would they need credit to cover the basic costs of doing business?
It looks to me like something is very wrong with that picture. It is so prevalent that there must be a business method at work that has been a commonplace way of doing things for awhile. But, when I go into any business, the costs of my products or services must be covered by sales of the product or service and paid to cover overhead directly.
What have they been doing with that money such that it isn’t available to cover their overhead on a regular basis? How did these companies figure they could afford $60 million dollar a year executives when their basic costs of doing business were not being covered first and they were running almost completely on credit?
Written by Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, 10-08-08, USA
About Cricket Diane
Painting in my studio - 2008. “Obviously, I love the ocean. Everyday there are new paintings of the ocean in my studio because it is the only subject I truly love painting, although I paint a lot of other subjects. It is also because I paint them from my mind which means I get to go meandering around the ocean without ever leaving home.” - Cricket Diane