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Tag Archives: US currency values

Republican budget cuts declare war on Americans – who voted for them?

16 Wednesday Feb 2011

Posted by CricketDiane in America - USA, cricketdiane, Economics, Economy, macro-economics, Money, US Government

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cricketdiane, cutting employment, cutting jobs, Republican US budget cuts, Republicans War on American Citizens, US currency values, US economic crisis, War on the poor disabled elderly education teachers schools

Seven Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount – 1774 to Present

Current data is only available till 2009. In 2009, the relative worth of $33,400.00 from 1988 is:

$60,600.00 using the Consumer Price Index
$54,700.00 using the GDP deflator
$63,300.00 using the value of consumer bundle
$62,400.00 using the unskilled wage
$64,300.00 using the Production Worker Compensation
$73,700.00 using the nominal GDP per capita
$92,500.00 using the relative share of GDP

(from)

Measuring Worth Website

MeasuringWorth.com – home page

***

Which means that if, you are making $60,600 dollars a year right now – you are actually only making something less than $33,400 dollars in 1988 money and what it could buy, based on the consumer price index.

But, it would take $63,300 a year to have the same amount based on a consumer bundle of goods.

And, to have the same amount as $33,400 represented in 1988 of the US GDP – it would take a salary of $92,500 dollars a couple years ago (2009) – this year and last year it would’ve been even worse, requiring a great deal more than that to have the same $33,400 dollar worth of real financial value.

But here is where it really gets fun –

TO have $33,400 dollars worth of 1972 money’s value and goods and value – two years ago in 2009 (and more today in 2011) – you would have to make –

Current data is only available till 2009. In 2009, the relative worth of $33,400.00 from 1972 is:

$171,000.00 using the Consumer Price Index
$137,000.00 using the GDP deflator
$172,000.00 using the value of consumer bundle
$164,000.00 using the unskilled wage
$190,000.00 using the Production Worker Compensation
$260,000.00 using the nominal GDP per capita
$381,000.00 using the relative share of GDP

from

Measuring Worth website

***

That means to have the things that $33,400 annual salary would buy in 1972 – it would take –

$171,000 dollars a year salary in 2009.

or $172,000 based on consumer bundle

or as an accurate comparison of the US GDP

$381,000 to be the same currency value of the United States (2 years ago)

***

You might want to read this –

Income inequality in America

How the middle class became the underclass

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/16/news/economy/middle_class/index.htm

Incomes for 90% of Americans have been stuck in neutral, and it’s not just because of the Great Recession. Middle-class incomes have been stagnant for at least a generation, while the wealthiest tier has surged ahead at lighting speed.

In 1988, the income of an average American taxpayer was $33,400, adjusted for inflation. Fast forward 20 years, and not much had changed: The average income was still just $33,000 in 2008, according to IRS data.

But, our legislators in every state and their staff members make a whole lot more than that each. As, does our Congressional members and Senate members and each of their staffs.

And, on top of that – just to be sure –

During 1972 our President was Republican

(and a crook)

During 1980 – our President was Republican

(and brought in people from the 1972 paranoid Republican crook)

In 1988 our President was Republican

And much of that time in between.

In 1995 our President was a Democrat – with a Republican Congress.

In 2002 our President was Republican.

In 2006 our President was Republican and most states were run by conservative Republican rulers.

And, in 2009 – despite getting a President that is a Democrat – the majority of state governors and state administrations and state legislatures were Republican.

For thirty years, we have been dominated by

Republicans. and by conservatives and right wing politicians.

Not everyone’s voice.

Nope, just the moral minority who have sponsored and highly paid Rush Limbaugh and various other loudmouthed obnoxious right wing operatives.

And, then it turns out – the Republicans weren’t even personally moral, either – among the “moral right wing minority” that have been running the country into the ground all this time. Even once, they couldn’t keep it in their pants when it came right down to it – and the vast array of unethical, illegal, morally bankrupt crap that has gone on in their administrations will fill history books for ages to come.

And, then the Wall Street debacle.

And, then it turns out that no one is actually making the money they thought they were making because it damn near won’t buy anywhere close to what it could buy thirty years ago, or twenty years ago or even, ten years ago.

– but, no that isn’t even enough –

The Labor Department still estimates that only 58% of our employable workforce is employed – and that doesn’t include the one-third of our US population that is in jail, prison, incarcerated in some damn program or in some institution.

So – what is wrong with this picture?

Just about everything.

– cricketdiane

***

But, that didn’t stop the House of Republicans from deciding that we are too broke to help with domestic spending but not too broke to send $10 billion dollars and more out of the country to provide “economic development” to other countries. Not for our businesses doing business there. No – it is to help “jump start” their economic development and their economies.

But, we’ve been doing that for over thirty years – every single year and paying for them to have infrastructure projects and development through the United Nations funds, the IMF funds, the International Development Banks and Loans and Guaranteed Loans that we backed and then wrote off and forgave – and on and on and on and on.

It has been obscene. Why should it be that way now that our nation is the one suffering economic blight?

– cricketdiane

(***

800px-United_States_Capitol_-_west_front3 - photo from wikipedia morphed by cricketdiane 2011

800px-United_States_Capitol_-_west_front3 - photo from wikipedia morphed by cricketdiane 2011

Watching the Republicans gut the Congress and our national budget to suit themselves inspired this morphed representation for what they’ve done to it.

And, for what the Republican Party has done to our money, our employment opportunities, the gutting of our businesses, the driving of our national businesses and industries into bankruptcy and millions of other assaults on the American people – that is exactly what they’ve done over thirty years.

***

 

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Do you have any idea what handstands the US government requires for the poorest of the poor to receive even $600 a month – and they give banks billions, no questions asked?

15 Thursday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips

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bailouts, banking and finance services committee, banks, bonds, commercial paper, commodities, consumer based economy, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit markets, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, deflation, economic development, economic models, economic stimulus, Economics, Economy, employment, evidence based analysis and policy, Federal Reserve, financial institutions, financial systems, gdp, global economic crisis, Global Economy, gnp, government, Great Depression of 2008 2009, housing, housing market, inflation, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Labor, macro-economic future forecasting, Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, mortgage backed securities, Physics of Change, Presidents Working Financial Group, Principles of Economics, Psychology, Quantum Physics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, recession, resourcing, Right Brain Thinking Skills Set, Rocket Science, Securities and Exchange Commission, Statistical Analysis, stock markets, stocks, unemployment, unsecured credit, US Congress, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, US House of Representatives, US Senate, US Treasury, Wall Street

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/business/18pay.html

By LOUISE STORY
Published: December 17, 2008

E. Stanley O’Neal, the former chief executive of Merrill Lynch, was paid $46 million in 2006, $18.5 million of it in cash.

But Merrill’s record earnings in 2006 — $7.5 billion — turned out to be a mirage. The company has since lost three times that amount, largely because the mortgage investments that supposedly had powered some of those profits plunged in value.

Unlike the earnings, however, the bonuses have not been reversed.

As regulators and shareholders sift through the rubble of the financial crisis, questions are being asked about what role lavish bonuses played in the debacle.

For Wall Street, much of this decade represented a new Gilded Age. Salaries were merely play money — a pittance compared to bonuses. Bonus season became an annual celebration of the riches to be had in the markets. That was especially so in the New York area, where nearly $1 out of every $4 that companies paid employees last year went to someone in the financial industry. Bankers celebrated with five-figure dinners, vied to outspend each other at charity auctions and spent their newfound fortunes on new homes, cars and art.

More than 100 people in Merrill’s bond unit alone broke the million-dollar mark in 2006. Goldman Sachs paid more than $20 million apiece to more than 50 people that year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

***

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/series/the_reckoning/index.html

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Accountability for TARP funds is written into the legislation and evidenced in GAO report / budget – US economic crisis

13 Tuesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Benjamin Franklin, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, Economics, Life In The USA - Rotterdam Club, Real Time Crises, Reality-based Analysis, Solutions, Solving Difficult Problems in Real Life Real World Real, Solving Impossible Problems, Sovereignty of the People, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Subconscious Cross-Reference and Recall, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US At Home - Domestic Policy, US Bill of Rights, US Constitution, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, We Come Bearing Gifts, Workable Solutions, XI-1

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bailouts, banking and finance services committee, banks, bonds, commercial paper, commodities, consumer based economy, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit markets, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, deflation, econometrics, economic development, economic models, economic stimulus, Economics, Economy, employment, evidence based analysis and policy, Federal Reserve, financial institutions, financial systems, gdp, global economic crisis, Global Economy, gnp, government, Great Depression of 2008 2009, housing, housing market, inflation, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Labor, macro-economic future forecasting, Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, mortgage backed securities, Physics of Change, Presidents Working Financial Group, Principles of Economics, Psychology, Quantum Physics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, recession, resourcing, Right Brain Thinking Skills Set, Rocket Science, Securities and Exchange Commission, Statistical Analysis, stock markets, stocks, unemployment, unsecured credit, US Congress, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, US House of Representatives, US Senate, US Treasury, Wall Street

http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008/08frusg.pdf

pg. 10 – 11

The following key points summarize economic performance in FY 2008.

*    After increasing by 2.7 percent in FY 2007, consumer spending was slightly negative over the four quarters of FY 2008, with a notable slowing in the final quarter.
*    Exports have been a key driver of the economy, maintaining a steady pace of growth in FY 2008 and accelerating markedly during the latter half of the fiscal year, but the outlook for exports is uncertain in view of the spreading world-wide recession.
*    Labor market conditions deteriorated during FY 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment declined at an average rate of 68,000 jobs per month in FY 2008, compared with the 109,000 average increase in jobs per month in FY 2007.

*   The unemployment rate trended steadily higher throughout FY 2008, reaching 6.1 percent at the very end of the fiscal year, compared to 4.7 percent at the end of FY 2007.
*    Overall inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), advanced to 5.3 percent in FY 2008, up significantly from the 2.4 percent pace of FY 2007. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) remained relatively contained, however, rising to 2.5 percent in FY 2008 versus 2.1 percent in FY 2007.

NOTE – The above figures although written in the GAO budget have obviously been revised at this time – unemployment rate admitted to be 7.2% by govt.

– also, inflation has increased significantly regardless of anything economic experts on news outlets say, as partly evidenced by this report and others.

***

Pg 12 – 14

The Path to Recovery, Part I – HERA

In July 2008, Congress passed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) of 2008, based on concern that continued losses at Fannie and Freddie and throughout the U.S. housing/credit market could lead to significantly larger and broader problems for both the U.S. and foreign economies.

HERA established a new regulatory agency: the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) with enhanced regulatory authority over the housing Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs)3, including the capital requirements and business activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. HERA also provided the Treasury Secretary with temporary authority to purchase any obligations and other securities issued by the housing GSEs.

Due to deteriorating conditions in the housing mortgage markets and the resulting negative financial impact on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, FHFA placed them under conservatorship on September 7, 2008. This action was taken to preserve GSE assets, ensure a sound and solvent financial condition, and mitigate systemic risks that contributed to current market instability.

Placing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under protection of a conservatorship enabled the Government to avert the initial threat of failure and focus on the larger, systemic challenges, with the ultimate intention of restoring financial stability. Under the conservatorship, the conservator (FHFA) replaced the organization’s senior management and oversaw the continued operation of the GSEs.

***

Pursuant to the authorities provided to the Secretary of the Treasury under the HERA, the Treasury Department, on September 7, 2008, took three additional steps to help ensure the solvency and liquidity of the GSE while they are working to resolve their financial difficulties:
a    o entering into senior preferred stock purchase arrangements with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
b    o establishing a GSE credit facility; and
c    o establishing a GSE MBS purchase program.

***

HERA established the HOPE for Homeowners Program4, which provides another stop-gap measure by helping borrowers faced with foreclosure refinance through the Federal Housing Administration. Despite these actions, there was still a pressing need to address the more systemic challenges posed by the credit crisis.

3 The housing GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System) are chartered by the Federal Government and pursue a federally mandated mission to support housing finance. Some GSEs are distinctly established as corporate entities – owned by shareholders of stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The operations of the housing GSEs are not guaranteed by the Federal Government.

4 HOPE for Homeowners is a voluntary program for the refinancing of distressed loans by providing Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance for refinanced loans that meet certain eligibility requirements. Both borrower and lender must agree to participate in the program.

***

The Path to Recovery, Part II – EESA and TARP
In October 2008, Congress passed and the President signed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA), which authorized Treasury to establish and manage the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). In general, TARP authorizes the Government to provide additional protection and stability to financial markets through a wide array of mechanisms:

*           EESA authorizes the Government to purchase or insure up to $700 billion in troubled assets, such as securities and other financial instruments.

*           The Treasury Secretary had immediate access to the first $250 billion. Following that, an additional $100 billion was authorized by the President. The last $350 billion is subject to Presidential approval and Congressional review.

In its first use of the TARP, Treasury created the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) to purchase up to $250 billion in senior preferred shares in a wide variety of banks and other financial institutions. These will be largely non-voting shares, may be sold to a third party, and will pay a 5 percent dividend in the first 5 years, and 9 percent thereafter.

a    Any firm participating in the CPP will provide the Treasury Secretary with a warrant guaranteeing the right to purchase additional common shares worth up to 15 percent of the value of the preferred stock purchased. The purchase price will be the average stock selling price over the 20-day period before the preferred stock purchase. If the company is unable to issue a warrant, it may issue senior debt instead.

b    EESA provides for: (1) oversight by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and a Special Inspector General; and (2) transparency by requiring Treasury to make available an electronic description of assets acquired under the program.

– NOTE PROVISION ABOVE –
[my note that the above provision for accountability already exists]

***
Recovery Efforts and Actions
The following summarizes some of the recovery efforts to date and their impact on and implications for the Government’s consolidated financial statements.

It should be noted that, although HERA and EESA authorize the Government to spend hundreds of billions of dollars in the recovery effort, the majority of those funds have yet to actually be spent, and as a result, are not and would not be reported on the Government’s consolidated financial statements.

Generally, the Government has recorded the funds that have already been spent at cost. The Government expects to recover, if not earn a return on these funds.

Actions by Congress:
*    Passes HERA, which enhanced the regulatory framework and provided temporary authority for the Treasury Secretary to provide financial support to Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
*    Passes EESA, establishing the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), authorizing the Treasury Department to use up to $700 billion in support of market stabilization efforts. The $700 billion limit shall be reduced by the difference between outstanding and guaranteed obligations under the EESA-authorized insurance program, if any, and the balance in the Troubled Assets Insurance Financing Fund (TAIFF), established by EESA to guarantee timely payments on mortgage-related assets.
*    Legislation only authorizes the Government to engage in specified market relief efforts. Authorizations by themselves do not impact either the Government’s financial statements or the deficit – the exercise of those authorities do.

Actions by the Federal Reserve System (Fed)
*    Lends approximately $30 billion in support of JP Morgan Chase to facilitate its acquisition of Bear Stearns;
*    Agrees to lend up to $85 billion to American International Group (AIG). Subsequent to FY-end 2008, the credit facility was modified and Treasury agreed to purchase $40 billion in Senior AIG preferred stock and will receive common stock warrants for 2 percent of the outstanding AIG common stock;
*    Announces Money Market Investor Funding Facility through which the Fed is authorized to buy $600 billion in CDs and commercial paper to bolster money market mutual funds, and sets up separate facilities to purchase certain AIG assets;
*    Agrees to guarantee $306 billion of Citigroup troubled assets. Pursuant to the agreement, Citigroup would cover the first $37 billion in losses, Treasury would cover the next $5 billion, and FDIC would cover up to $10 billion of additional losses. Treasury and FDIC receive Citigroup preferred stock as part of the arrangement;
*    Announces program to purchase up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities and up to $100 billion of Fannie and Freddie debt, and to lend up to $200 billion against new car, student, and small-business loans. Treasury has pledged $20 billion from TARP for this program as well;
*    Under the Supplementary Financing Program, Treasury borrowed $300 billion to increase cash balances at the Fed to support the Fed’s market stabilization efforts.

The vast majority of Fed actions and transactions will not directly impact the Government’s financial statements since the Fed is an independent entity and, while part of the Government, is not considered part of the Federal Government reporting entity. To date, the Government’s exposure is largely limited to any impact that losses from these programs may have on excess profits that the Fed is required to pass on to the Treasury’s General fund.

***

Actions by Treasury:

Under HERA authority, received preferred stock and warrants, valued at $7 billion as consideration for entering into assistance agreements – recorded as an investment.

Commits to provide up to $200 billion under a preferred stock purchase agreement to ensure that GSEs’ assets and liabilities remain in balance – records $13.8 billion as a liability in FY 2008, based upon the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s notification to the Treasury Department that a payment is due to Freddie Mac, based on Freddie Mac’s September 30, 2008 net worth status.

Fannie Mae did not require a payment in FY 2008. Purchased $3.3 billion in MBS and recorded that amount as a loan receivable in FY 2008.

Under EESA, used over $200 billion to purchase assets of qualifying financial institutions since fiscal year-end as of December 9, 2008. None of these purchases occurred during FY 2008.

Amounts expended under HERA and EESA have been and are expected to be treated as either investments or loans, as the Government may recover and possibly even earn a positive return on amounts invested as economic conditions improve.

As the first quarter of FY 2009 draws to a close, the Government is exploring a number of other recovery strategies. Actions under HERA, EESA, and other initiatives are intended to restore confidence to lenders and consumers, and provide stability to the nation’s economy.

***
[ . . . ]

Historically, the Government has incurred debt when: (1) it borrows from the public to fund budget deficits, and (2) government funds invest excess receipts in government securities.

However, in FY 2008, this relationship changed, with Treasury borrowing over $300 billion to increase cash balances at the Fed so that the Fed can assist with market stabilization efforts.

The implementation of both HERA and EESA including the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) have the potential to increase future borrowings by more than $1 trillion. Substantial borrowings in FY 2009 and beyond are expected to fund stock and asset purchases at financial institutions across the country.
At the end of FY 2008, the Government had incurred $10 trillion in debt, comprised of: debt held by (or owed to) the public (i.e., publicly held debt) and intragovernmental debt (i.e., debt the Government owes to itself).

Publicly held debt (a balance sheet liability) includes all Treasury securities (e.g., bills, notes, and bonds) held by individuals, corporations, Federal Reserve banks, foreign governments, and other entities outside the Government.

Intra-governmental debt is primarily held in the form of special nonmarketable securities by various parts of the Government. Laws establishing Government trust funds generally require excess trust fund receipts to be invested in these special securities.

Intra-governmental debt is not shown on the balance sheet because claims of one part of the Government against another are eliminated for consolidation purposes (see Financial Statement Note 11).
Gross Federal debt [ . . . ]
Congress established a dollar ceiling for Federal borrowing, which has been periodically increased over the years (most recently from $9.8 trillion to $10.6 trillion in 2008). At the end of FY 2008, the amount of debt subject to the limit was $9.96 trillion, $655.2 billion under the limit. In October 2008, in connection with the passage of EESA, the limit was raised again to $11.3 trillion.

http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2008/08frusg.pdf

pg 165 (numbered 159  in report)

Research and Development
Federal investments in research and development (R&D) comprise those expenses for basic research, applied research, and development that are intended to increase or maintain national economic productive capacity or yield other future benefits.
•
Investments in basic research are for systematic studies to gain knowledge or understanding of the fundamental aspects of phenomena and of observable facts without specific applications toward processes or products in mind.
•
Investments in applied research are for systematic studies to gain knowledge or understanding necessary for determining the means by which a recognized and specific need may be met.
•
Investments in development are the systematic use of the knowledge and understanding gained from research for the production of useful materials, devices, systems, or methods, including the design and development of prototypes and processes.
With regard to basic and applied research, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) had $16.6 billion (60 percent) and $11.4 billion (53 percent), of the total basic and applied research investments, respectively, in fiscal year 2008 as shown in Table 11. HHS also had similar R&D investment amounts (and percentage contributions) in each of the preceding 4 years.
Within HHS, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) conducts almost all (97 percent) of the department’s basic and applied research. The NIH Research Program includes all aspects of the medical research continuum, including basic and disease-oriented research, observational and population-based research, behavioral research, and clinical research, including research to understand both health and disease states, to move laboratory findings into medical applications, to assess new treatments or compare different treatment approaches; and health services research.
The NIH regards the expeditious transfer of the results of its medical research for further development and commercialization of products of immediate benefit to improved health as an important mandate.
With regard to development, the DOD and the NASA had $65.2 billion (82 percent) and $11.4 billion (14 percent), respectively, of total development investments in fiscal year 2008, as shown in Table 11. DOD changed its methodology for reporting yearly investments in research and development during fiscal year 2008 which affected the current and prior 4 years. Their data is based on research and development outlays (expenditures). As a result, the total amounts of investments in development (Table 11) have been restated. Development is comprised of five stages: advanced technology development, advanced component development and prototypes, system development and demonstration, management support, and operational systems development. Major outcomes of DOD development are:
•
Hardware and software components, or complete weapon systems, ready for operational and developmental testing and field use, and
•
Weapon systems finalized for complete operational and developmental testing.
NASA development programs include activities to extend our knowledge of Earth, its space environment, and the universe, and to invest in new aeronautics and advanced space transportation technologies that support the development and application of technologies critical to the economic, scientific, and technical competiveness of the United States. Some outcomes and future outcomes of this development are:
•
The Constellation Systems program to develop, demonstrate, and deploy the capabilities to transport crew and cargo for missions to the lunar surface and safely return the crew to Earth.
•
Robotic spacecraft that use electrical power for propulsion, data acquisition, and communication to accurately place themselves in orbit around the surfaces of bodies about which we may know relatively little.
•
The Fundamental Aeronautics Program conducts research to enable the design of vehicles that fly through any atmosphere at any speed. A key focus will be the development of physics-based, multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization tools to address the multiple design challenges in future aircraft.
•
The James Webb Space Telescope is a large, deployable infrared astronomical space-based observatory. The mission is a logical successor to the Hubble Space Telescope, extending beyond Hubble’s discoveries into the infrared, where the highly red shifted early universe must be observed, where cool objects like protostars and protoplanetary disks emit strongly, and where dust obscures shorter wavelengths.
•
The study of the dynamic Earth system to trace effect to cause, connect variability and forcing with response, and vastly improve national capabilities to predict climate, weather, natural hazards, and conditions in the space environment.

***

***

from Evidence-based Policy Report (UK)

This is not to say that most policy develops in such a linear way from first identifying the evidence, balancing the options and then developing and evaluating the resulting policy. As set out by the Chief Government Social Researcher, the idea of ‘evidence-inspired’ policy making might be more appropriate (Duncan, 2005). Amongst those interviewed, there was a clear distinction between the theory or ideal behind evidence-based policy and the realities of making policy in the real world.“…but that is very much an ideal, that’s very much a theory, which is sometimes overturned by events.”The reality of policy making was described as messy and unpredictable, rarely progressing in a linear fashion. Evidence was clearly just one factor which policy makers took into consideration when developing or implementing policy. Other factors and real-world events and crises all exerted an influence to a greater or lesser degree depending on the policy. Most importantly, the timing of most policies rarely allowed for a linear and methodical evaluation of the evidence. Evidence-based policy making, therefore, was not seen as something that is conducted in isolation. Although most of the policy makers were obviously uncomfortable with the idea of policy made ‘on the hoof’ in response to some pressing need to respond to an issue or on the basis of anecdote or media pressure, they acknowledged that a purely evidence-based approach was rarely possible.

www.gsr.gov.uk

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

– my comments –

I’ve been hearing on the news, even from government officials and Congress members including Barney Frank – that there is no accountability for recipients of the first TARP funds that were originally issued – nor those funds that were also used prior to that last year as emergency funds.

The fact is otherwise and can be found in the above document from the US government Accountability Office. In fact, I think I read that in the wording of the legislation originally passed on the TARP funds and in those other bailouts for “the housing bill” that Congress passed, for GSE’s, in the AIG bailout dollars and at the increased limits at the credit windows, etc.

Okay – so what the hell is this now? Are these government workers and elected members just pretending not to know this stuff or are they deciding that it is too much for them to find out how these funds have been used?

Obviously, there are the economic signs of literally a depression rather than a recession at this point and these dynamics are based on the basic definitions of an economic depression. It looks like a shallow depression that has been articulated to be shallow at this point. However, it is spreading out so far and so fast, that I would question what it will become next, having been artificially and unnaturally flattened and shallowed from what it would’ve been otherwise. My guess – a scientific wild-ass guess, at best – is that we’ve come to the “oh, hell” part of the equation.

that said, there is a serious uncontained fault in the foundation of our economy and I think it means that under the current stresses, this and other weaknesses could be amplified and cleaving long before anything could be done to stop it. Our cash / currency foundation is resting on projections that are based on faulty logic and pre-supposed factors that no longer exist. I would say that is now a serious problem because it has been a supporting structure for all US currency and asset values. That is a big fault line in the foundation.

– cricketdiane

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Evidence based analysis – Economics and Policy – a reality based approach in use currently within international community

12 Monday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Macro-economics future forecasting, Make It Work, Physics of Change, Principles of Economics, Psychology, Quantum Physics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, resourcing, Right Brain Thinking Skills Set, Rocket Science, Statistical Analysis

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bailouts, banking and finance services committee, banks, bonds, commercial paper, commodities, consumer based economy, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, credit markets, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currency values, deflation, econometrics, economic development, economic models, economic stimulus, Economics, Economy, employment, evidence based analysis and policy, Federal Reserve, financial institutions, financial systems, gdp, global economic crisis, Global Economy, gnp, government, Great Depression of 2008 2009, housing, housing market, inflation, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Labor, macro-economic future forecasting, mortgage backed securities, Physics of Change, Presidents Working Financial Group, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, recession, Securities and Exchange Commission, Statistical Analysis, stock markets, stocks, unemployment, unsecured credit, US Congress, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Government, US government policy, US House of Representatives, US Senate, US Treasury, Wall Street

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

This report presents findings from an investigation into the use of evidence-based policy in practice. It is based on interviews and discussion groups with policy makers from 10 Whitehall departments and the devolved administrations of the Scottish Executive and the Welsh Assembly Government. In total, 42 policy makers, in a range of middle management and senior civil service positions, took part.
It was conducted to gauge the extent to which the use of robust, research evidence is embedded within day-to-day policy making and policy delivery, and to understand the reasons why effective use of evidence in government decision making continues to present such a challenge. It provides a snapshot of current practices within government departments.

http://www.gsr.gov.uk/downloads/resources/pu256_160407.pdf

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

Government Social Research
www.gsr.gov.uk

–

Government Social Research Unit
HM Treasury
Enquiries: gsr-web@hm-treasury.x.gsi.gov.uk
For general enquiries about HM Treasury and its work, contact:
Correspondence and Enquiry Unit
HM Treasury
1 Horse Guards Road
London
SW1A 2HQ
Tel: 020 7270 4558
Fax: 020 7270 4861
E-mail: public.enquiries@hm-treasury.gov.uk

Analysis for policy: evidence-based policy in practice

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When mortgages are sold – the property becomes the ownership of the foreign bank or government that has bought it

11 Sunday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in America - USA, Analogic Reasoning, ancient sea, Comparative Analysis and Analogic Analysis, Creating Solutions for America, Creating Solutions That Work, Cricket D, cricket diane, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, CricketHouseStudios, Democracy, diane c phillips, Economics, Economy, Freedom, Freedom of Thought, Genius At Work, Integrated Thinking Processes, Intelligence, International Concerns, Inventing Solutions For America, Macro-economics future forecasting, Money, Principles of Economics, Real Time Crises, Real-World, Reality-based Analysis, Reasoning, Rocket Science, Sparky Phillips, Statistical Analysis, Systems Analysis, Tangible from the Impossible, Thinking Skills, Thomas Jefferson, Thoughts, Twenty-first Century, Uncategorized, United States of America, US At Home - Domestic Policy, US Bill of Rights, US Constitution, US Declaration of Independence, US Government, XI-1

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So, let’s see what we’ve got here . . .

Every piece of property in America has been sold three times over –

once when the seller received their price from the buyer’s mortgage,

secondly, when the bank or finance company charged 8 times the price of the property for the mortgage on it,

and, third, when that mortgage was sold to a secondary market packaged with other derivatives and mortgage-backed securities.

***

So now, every piece of property in the United States is no longer owned by anyone in our citizenry who would occupy and conduct their lives from it. That means, we don’t own America anymore.

***

Every property is now owned by banks around the world, foreign investment groups and other businesses rather than by anything or anyone in the US. Even the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage products are sold off into the secondary markets so they can make more mortgages. Therefore even those properties are literally under the ownership of businesses elsewhere.

As much as some American banks and companies do own groups of these mortgage-backed securities, they are not people in respect to this property ownership – not homeowners – not those who would be members of the community – not church goers – not raising their families in those homes – and have no vested interest in the improvement and upkeep of the homes.

***

There are several serious flaws in this system and ideology of mortgage / home ownership / commercial property / real estate and property ownership. The first of which is that those holding the mortgages actually own the properties, not those people that are paying on the mortgages.

The more serious flaw, however, is that now none of the property in the US is owned by the US nor by its citizens. How can people be paying for something that they will never, never, never own? Why would they pay for these homes and properties when some foreign banking or investment group is actually being paid to pay off their debt in the property and those Americans paying the interest and principle will never own it?

***

Another reason this system is flawed, has to do with the pragmatic logistics of owning thirty thousand properties in the US when these have defaulted on their mortgages and the company of ownership exists elsewhere in the world. Not only did these companies, banks, hedge funds and investors never have a plan for this – they also have no real intention of using these properties as homes or businesses.

The properties are no more than a number on a page of assets somewhere – the real properties behind them mean nothing in this tally while the only real use the properties do have is no longer viable and no longer utilized. At the same time, those who would have use of the physical real properties among the citizens and businesses in the US have no genuine access to ownership of them. What purpose then do they serve?

When there exists no part and place for the citizens of a country to have real ownership in property and businesses of their country – there also ceases to exist any vested interest in support of the interests of the country and its communities, its governments, its existing businesses, its ideologies, its security, its assets, its improvements, its survival.

***

Now, the bankers, government officials, chamber of commerce leadership, lobbyists, Wall Street, and various other leaders of the United States appear to be trying to find a way to keep the same old game going. So, the real question is not what will restore the credit markets.

The real question is – how we will take what we have and go to something new that evolves from what it has been?

So we take these bankers out of the game for the very treasonous and criminal harms done to the United States and the World? Do we restore ownership of all mortgages, credit, properties, assets and US business interests of the US to the US?

Do we let those companies be destroyed that are holding to prices that are inflated for purposes of making money on the credit required for any purchases of their products, services or properties, including automakers and sellers of real estate? Do we stop subsidizing lobbyists, banks, financiers and foreign interests, profit-driven oil companies and pharmaceuticals?

***

How much of the problems would be solved if we make it the law that if a bank or finance company originates a mortgage, it must hold that mortgage for at least two-thirds of the life of the mortgage or for its entire term?

How much more of the economic problems in the US and around the World would be solved almost immediately by removing all credit derivatives from use – allowing no new ones to be made and by forcing all existing ones to be resolved before the end of 2009? What if that includes all credit derivatives, credit default swaps, mortgage-backed securities, bonds and commercial paper of any kind – all of which would be resolved before the end of 2009 and then never allowed again?

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US Economic crisis – the funky numbers are a place to start macro-econ analysis

07 Wednesday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, Economics, Economy, Macro-economics future forecasting, Principles of Economics, Statistical Analysis

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America, bailouts, banking, bankruptcies, big business, bonds, Business, commodities, Congress, credit, credit crunch crisis, credit default swaps, credit derivatives, Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, econometrics, Economics, Economy, financial derivatives, global economic crisis, Global Economy, investment banking, macro-economic analysis, Money, mortgage backed securities, Principles of Economics, Reality-based Analysis, statistics, statistics portals, stock market, stocks, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Economy, US Government, US population, US Senate

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/POP

Total US population (all ages including armed service personnel) revised and dated through 12-01-08

305737 million – 12-01-08 – (calculated)

Last updated 2006 with explanation of how numbers were derived

Source US Dept of Commerce – Census Bureau

***

Number of IRS returns filed for 2006

Individual income tax [1]

138,893,908

Corporation income tax [1]

2,507,728 [2] (excludes S corporations)

Employment taxes [1]

30,740,592

http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0,,id=102886,00.html

***

http://www.fedstats.gov/qf/states/00000.html

Civilian labor force, 2006

151,428,000

Total number of firms, 2002

22,974,655

***

This is where I start – obviously somewhere there exists newer and more accurate numbers. Maybe in consumer focused industries? chamber of commerce? international knowledge of the US?

Next, I start looking around and thinking about where would need to have the real numbers . . .

– cricketdiane

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Credit default swaps aren’t the only reason – but credit as currency has played a part –

03 Saturday Jan 2009

Posted by CricketDiane in Uncategorized

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bonds, commodities, credit crunch crisis, credit default swaps, Cricket Diane C Phillips, Cricket House Studios, cricketdiane, currencies, Economics, global economic crisis, macro-economic future forecasting, mortgage backed securities, Principles of Economics, securities, stock market, stocks, underemployment, unemployment, US currency values, US dollar, US economic crisis, US Economy, US government policy, US Labor Statistics

At least they’ve noticed there is a problem . . .

Over and over, the news shows on every station at every hour including cable news sources show “experts” projecting economic forecasts. Every time I hear them, I wonder why they are getting paid for being wrong much of the time.

Are they not using real numbers based in real-time or are they using only the variables that they favor or what? It is hard to understand.

I found this article on Reuters –

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4BM4Z320081223

It is called Factbox – consumer credit delinquencies – and I didn’t check the validity of its numbers nor its sources, however, it certainly indicates that there is an iceberg we are hitting as an economy.

If all the layoffs, firings, bankrupt business closings, and underemployment numbers were added together, it would show a truer picture of the reality we are facing.

Perhaps the “elite” of our country believed a credit based economy without a cash basis would have been better but in fact, all it does is allow usage fees to be inflicted on us for our own money that we earn and seek to spend. At every turn, there would have been a fee added to use our own money and it has been that to some extent already.

It is an economic system sustained by immediacy and set upon sand which has now shifted out from under it. When we rebuild our economy, there will be many efforts to continue our path along the same lines of credit rather than cash or any other value as its foundation. Do we really want to be at the mercy of Goldman Sachs and Equifax among others of a similar variety?

– cricketdiane

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