Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, cricketdiane, Economics, Economy, Inventing Solutions For America, macro-economic forecasting 2008, macro-economic future forecasting, US economic crisis, what happens if we hit bottom
* what would happen if we “hit the bottom” and had to start again? how soon would that happen? are there any ways to maintain free market systems integrity and stop the free fall of our economy while preserving our representative republic and principles of democracy?
* what would stimulate economic growth? as quickly as possible?
* what would create stability in the markets quickly, effectively and in the most natural, non-invasive and non-obstructive, non-obtrusive manner possible?
Creating workable solutions to the economic and credit crisis in the US and Intnl communities – First Step – Get the right questions –
September 25, 2008 Posted by cricketdiane
what would happen if we “hit the bottom” and had to start again? How soon would that happen? Are there any ways to maintain free market systems integrity and stop the free fall of our economy while preserving our representative republic and principles of democracy?
* we would bounce, probably scrubble about on the bottom for awhile and then we would get real solutions in place and restart. However, I’m not looking at a chart or analysis projection in front of me, so making do with the analysis in my head, I would almost bet we hit bottom last Thursday, so we’re already there. Or, rather its already come up to meet us depending on how its considered.
* if it is not considered the bottom and we have a further and more dramatic shift downward, what would that be? No matter what we do now by throwing money at the problem, jobs will continue to be lost by the rate of 60,000+ each month continuing well into next year. The figures for each month over the course of this year have been in the 80,000 +/- neighborhood except for April, I think it was, when the US government arbitrarily added 34,000 government jobs that artificially optimized the numbers. I think it would have been the month that entered as a determinant in economists’ view of “Recession” calls or not – anyway to make it look okay they added a whole bunch of government jobs and I never found confirmation for warm bodies being employed in any appreciable number of them.
* since the housing markets have been so severely and artificially inflated, for quite some time and due to the levels of mortgages that as ARMs will be resetting over the next year, that situation is only going to continue to grow. This will happen regardless unless a change in the mortgage structures is made.
* apparently the difficulties of this have gone about the same in consistently deteriorating conditions month to month since last year, easily observed in data. There were indications apparent to the international community economic commissions long before that because efforts were being made to demand the US make necessary corrections immediately since pre-2005.
* real unemployment is likely around 15% or higher and the Department of Labor is using numbers that are “filtered” to appear better than they are. The historical figures to which they are being compared were not based on number of new applicants for unemployment benefits. The actual numbers being espoused by the Dept. of Labor are not representative nor an accurate portrayal of reality because they only relate the number of first time requests for assistance through the unemployment benefit program.
From the time that employee benefits stop through unemployment insurance, they are no longer counted in the total even though they are very likely still unemployed. The small business owners whose businesses have been decimated already are not represented in these figures as unemployed either, because they aren’t allowed to apply for benefits. The elderly that have been being employed part or full time and been let go are not being counted. Those who were fired, quit or harassed into quitting are also not included. The other significant populations who were already 85% unemployed regardless of their employability are the disabled individuals and disenfranchised populations generally. These are most certainly not included in the figures either.
* percentages of foreclosures, while varying by area, are very likely well past 12%. Existing home sales numbers have been so (faulty) because of combining distressed property sales figures with full-price sales numbers, that these can’t be used for analysis. Home values have already taken a portion of the pricing adjustment, but not all. I had found a mortgage overview online that shows each state with a rollover and index of how many outstanding mortgages exist of different types, the number of mortgages in overdue status and similar elements. It shows a huge number of mortgages all over the country that are either already distressed or will soon be reset to their higher “ARM” adjustment rates. Since nothing is addressing this other than sparse state by state efforts, it is likely to increase the number of total foreclosures for the year and follow into next year.
* The bailout would devalue the currency by some critical degree however, having thought about whether that would be offset by other factors or mitigated in some specific manner – I’d say now that, no. The devaluation of our currency and current rate of inflation will not be offset for the 96% of the population and +/-97% of the economy where it would matter most.
* The number of jobs added each month to grow the economy in the United States is estimated to be (an additional) 150,000 per month. This had been a standard gauge of growth before the recent 18+ months of job losses that will not and have not been replaced in the economy. These losses of around 80,000 jobs each month will not be regained immediately. The 93% of jobs added since 2003 have been added, not by big business but apparently by small to medium-sized businesses, according to the foxbusiness news reports tonight. (Better look that one up, I was only half listening.) It is roughly accurate however, and the actual numbers and percentages can be located through the National Association of Small Business Owners or through the Chamber of Commerce, Federal Reserve, Department of Commerce and CIA databook / factbook data pages, (by city, region, state, national and by dates.)
* For new building permits and other new projects – my guess is that those will happen in some manner because the government at the state, local and federal levels stimulates these directly. The commercial projects in my area have restarted already with refurbishing of malls, strip shopping center developments being started or continuing, stores being refurbished, etc.
Written by Cricket Diane C Sparky Phillips, 09-26-08, USA