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How To Figure Out If America Is In A Mess Or Not –
2008 Cricket Diane C Phillips
Now look, this is simple. For every home foreclosed in America, it impacts a minimum of three people – doesn’t matter if it was an “investor” or not. It changes the buying power of at least 3 people.
Take the total number of homes in foreclosure or where the foreclosure has already occurred over the last two years and multiply by 3. That is a conservative estimate of the immediate and specific impacts of those events.
Then, put that number under the heading, “Foreclosures – losses”. Next, make a column for “Foreclosure – ripple effects”. Take the mean average of interactive positions affected by each of those 3 people. This means they aren’t giving at church anymore, or buying groceries where they used to live nor attending school, soccer or scouts, etc.
Multiply the first number by 25. This is not the accurate mean average. It is a conservative estimate which includes drug stores, discount stores, auto repair businesses, dry cleaners, sports activities, restaurants, malls, gas stations, little league and others. Make a list of these, if you want. It really is a conservative estimate.
Therefore, column one has the conservative “real” number of immediate real lives affected and column two has the conservative estimate of the “real” impacts to the buying power lost to businesses and surrounding community services, organizations and churches across the United States.
Then, take the number (as close to actual as possible) of jobs lost over the last 2 years, (not unemployed because those numbers are fudged). Using this number, multiply by 4. This is the average number of people affected by a job loss. This goes in column four under the heading, “Jobs – losses”. It represents a conservative estimate of the buying power lost when one single job is removed from the family it was supporting or helping to support.
Now, take an average mean of the impacts in dollars no longer available to use to buy things. Use an average base that is conservative. Lest we forget, these numbers and multipliers are the highest probability of assured impacts because the estimates are on the conservative side. The real impact numbers are much greater and amplified to an extreme that can only be imagined using these charts.
So, using the conservative dollar estimate of $500 / week or $12,000 per year – whichever makes you feel better about it – multiply the job losses number by either (or both) of these numbers. Enter this amount in a column title, “Job losses – ripple effects @ $500/wk” or put in the $12,000 per year number, instead, whichever was used. This represents the absolute minimum amounts of buying power that has been lost by these job losses.
Now, if you’ve done this right, all these numbers will represent the same time period, (2 yrs); and the same basic conservative estimation process used on all of them to derive a clearer picture of the problem that has occurred across the US.
When comparing this chart to any other derivations of impacts and losses, – remember this, they don’t mix. It is nearly impossible to get a true picture of how other impact charting was done and whether their figures mixed apples and oranges. Or, whether the statistics and studies used narrowly defined, targeted, select denigrations of totals to use for the derivations and base totals because of bias, intent or ignorance.
The close to damn accurate chart you’ve just made starts to show a clearer picture of the real problems we face in this historic time of national crisis. It explains why our businesses are failing in record numbers, our towns and cities are being heavily impacted financially and otherwise, housing developments sit empty and a host of other services are going bankrupt.
It isn’t what can or can’t be put on credit or borrowed that signifies the greatest and most severe part of our economic crisis. It is the true loss of buying power in the consumer base that supports all of it. These columns of numbers are conservatively generated to supply a realistic assessment of cause and effects relationships in our economy. It evidences a severe problem, even in its most conservative derivations.
Written by Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips, 06-24-08
Cricket House Studios, USA1 – 2008 –
“Creating the Tangible from the Impossible every day and the Impossible from the Tangible as needed.”