Quote from the US Labor Department Document 2008 – describing their “best guess” estimations.
“Does the establishment survey account for employment from new businesses?
Yes; monthly establishment survey estimates include an adjustment to account for the net employment
change generated by business births and deaths. The adjustment comes from an econometric model that
forecasts the monthly net jobs impact of business births and deaths based on the actual past values of the net impact that can be observed with a lag from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The
establishment survey uses modeling rather than sampling for this purpose because the survey is not immediately
able to bring new businesses into the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between the birth of a new
firm and its appearance on the sampling frame and availability for selection. BLS adds new businesses to the
survey twice a year.
It seems pretty obvious that each day in April 2008, we were told on every news outlet about businesses which were each laying-off 4,000, or more employees. Each day we were shown businesses that were closing the doors on branches, stores and sometimes going bankrupt entirely. By my estimation, the unemployment rate for the U.S. has to actually be much higher than 5% and for April, the number of jobs lost would’ve actually been somewhere over 85,000 – not 20,000.
Somewhere in our government, these statistics are being doctored, altered and manipulated. Why is it against the law for me to lie to Congress or to our government but for some reason it is perfectly okay for our government agencies in these official capacities to lie and to doctor statistics to suit their own agendas?
Written by Cricket Diane C “Sparky” Phillips, May 16, 2008